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BY LON B, GREGORY
Retrospect,
Reappraisal &
Prognostication
It's that time of year again. Everyone is suddenly aware that a new year is approaching rapidly . . . and certainly. And in those relatively quiet business moments before and during the holidays, a distinct pattern seems to emerge. The manager's process seems to be in three distinct and orderly segments: retrospect, reappraisal and prognostication.
It would seem that as soon as next year's budget is approved, everyone first looks back on the past year, recounting the successes and failures of the past 1 1 months. And before the euphoria completely fades, at least a superficial attempt at reappraisal of those wrong steps is made.
Now, after at least IVi hours on these steps, positive action is taken in the form of prognostication — setting forth what may be expected next year — hopefully in terms reflecting data based on the accuracy of steps one and two.
Sound silly? It isn't! Proof is the fact that within the past three weeks, we have received no less than eight "official" A-V industry forecasts for next year as each respective company sees it. Each was couched in terms of being based on a careful analysis of the past year with a considered reappraisal of how to improve the situation. One even hedged to the point of predicting 1973 instead of 1971 (that company has missed annual delivery commitments two years running.)
Each of these supposedly predicts the outcome of the changing, confusing technology of our industry. Three in particular bear comment.
One intimates that 1971 will be the year that videotape will overshadow film as the A-V medium of the future. Another reports that the future for film has never looked brighter. And, still another suggests that by 1973 we will all be watching X-rated films on some kind of home cassette system which will replace theatres, TV and group film showings.
Now that we have carefully listened to all those considered views of others, we feel we have earned our own predictions. We spent five hours in retrospect and reappraisal of our industry. And, the only logical conclusion can be that next year — and likely even in 1973 — we will still be watching films in group showings, still going to the theatre, and still seeing increasing sophistication of videotape presentations and usage.
The reason is simple. In an industry where the tail consistently wags the dog, nothing else can be reasonably expected. The one bright spot is that before long this will not be the case. As talented communicators emerge through experience and practice, they will be dictating the technology. The hardware explosion of the 60's will be succeeded by the concept and application explosion of the 70's.
If we must make resolutions for the New Year, let's state them in their simplest form and apply them to all facets of our activities: Let us:
— Strive for quality, truth and realism in our products and concepts.
— Be a party to only those things which provide meaningful improvement to our industry, our companies and our world.
— Be more seriously retrospect, more honest in reappraisal and deliver more realistic prognostications next year
Happy Holidays,
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DECEMBER, 1970