Television digest with AM-FM reports (Jan-Dec 1951)

9 It*s apparent TV-radio trade is enjoying same upswing as most other appliances still in supply, judging from optimistic reports in business press. "The lift is off the bottom," said report of business survey committee of National Assn, of Purchasing Agents, but it cautions that's "not indicative of a boom in general business the balance of the year. " Near-term outlook is for higher prices for TV sets, once old stock is gone. New lines are generally priced higher, production is subject to ever-tightening materials controls, probable lower output rate, increasing labor costs. If demand continues high, prices have "nowhere to go but up." Long-term, there's scant doubt about enormous future prospects for TV — once freeze is lifted, new stations built, new markets opened up. That's assuming that, by then, civilian and defense economies are brought into promised equilibriiim. In that connection, it's worth contemplating what GE's Dr. W.R.G. Baker recently listed as 4 principal factors affecting growth of TV after freeze thaws; (1) Economic ; "We will still be in the middle of an expanding economy, with our national gross product reaching a new high of some ^310 billion or more a year, due in part to the heavy Federal military expenditures, to the Govt.'s deficit spending and to a dropping, but still fairly adequate, supply of consumer products, and a high level of disposable income." (2) Political ; "We are, and barring an all-out war, will be in 1952 living in a garrison state, a controlled economy, with definite limitations on the amount of civilian production and with controls on profits, wages and prices." (3) Production ; "If the present pattern of mobilization is followed, there will not be available for manufacture of TV sufficient critical materials for industry to produce more than 5,000,000 sets in 1952. It may even be 4,000,000 or less, if proposed restrictions on critical materials are adhered to rigidly. It might even be fewer sets if nickel is unavailable for receiving tubes. "It takes a long time for many of the military contracts to build up to any volume, and that is particularly true for complicated military electronic equipment requiring a large amount of engineering. The major drain on the supply of critical basic materials will fall most heavily in 1952 and early 1953." (4) Scientific : "Improved black-and-white receivers for uhf as well as vhf will be available. Picture tube sizes are still increasing. No compatible color receiver of an all-electronic type will have been developed to the point that it will be in quantity production by the time the freeze is unfrozen." CUTBACKS BITING NOW-TROUBLE AHEAD: Let's not kid ourselves — there'll be tough times ahead. TV-radio-appliance production is bound to dip further as inventories of materials are used up, metal rations get tighter and component shortages develop. Some of the optimistic statements by high govt, officials recently do not appear to be borne out by the facts. It's known that these same men — in off-therecord remarks — see plenty trouble ahead in production situation. While NPA was telling industry groups this week that consumer durable goods may get 10% less copper and aluminum during first-quarter 1952, for example. Defense Mobilizer Charles E. Wilson reported to the President and the public that civilian manufacturers may get enough materials during first quarter to allow them to operate "substantially at fourth-quarter levels" (see Mobilization Notes, p. 11). This is a view we haven't heard from any other production control official. To satisfy total military and civilian demand for metal in first quarter would require ; 205% of total available supply of structural steel; 160% of alloy steel ; 170% of stainless steel ; 166% of copper wire ; 177% of aluminum. Already these shortages have bitten heavily into appliance output. GE and V/estinghouse are eliminating from their lines some small appliances such as waffle irons and sandwich grills, and GE is cutting refrigerator output to 50% of firstquarter level. Shortages of nickel, steel, copper and zinc were blamed for shutdown this week of GE's Hotpoint plant in Milwaiokee, which idled 600 workers. That material shortages are going to hurt this quarter, is indicated already