Television digest with electronic reports (Jan-Dec 1952)

with Electronics Reports WYATT BUILDING / WASHINGTON 5, D. C. • TELEPHONE STERLING 1755 Trade Report January 5, 1952 TAKING STOCK OF TV-RADIO STOCKS: Except that RTMA reports factory inventory of TVs at 219,885 units as of Dec. 21 — which means the industry has pulled figure down some 550,000 from dangerous Aug. 3, 1951 peak of 768,766 (Vol. 7:32) — we have only end-of-November figures on which to try to calculate how many sets were still in all trade pipelines at end of 1951. RTMA distributor inventory shows 560,196 TVs as of Nov. 23, down from 645,312 on Oct. 26 and from year's peak of 680,862 as of last Aug. 24, but still much higher than the 363,458 reported at end of 1950. Dun & Bradstreet reports this week that retail inventory at end of November was 800,000-950,000 sets, of which 300,000-350,000 were table models and 500,000 600.000 other sizes. This is exactly same as end of October (Vol. 7:49). November dealer sales ran 565,000 units (231,000 table TVs, 332,000 other), according to Dun & Bradstreet, which compares with 505,500 during October. For the only months for which Dun & Bradstreet has reported, July-thru-November , 2,111,000 TV sales are reported (852,000 table, 1,259,000 other). Knowing factory inventory, and assuming distributor-retailer inventories change only slightly when end-of-December is reported, it's a good guess now that 1951 ended with 1,500,000 or more TV sets in all pipelines. Radio inventory at end of November was 1,250,000-1,500,000 home sets, about same as end of October, plus 250,000-300,000 portables (up estimated 6000). November radio sales were 558,000 home radios, 85,000 portables, and sales for July-November were 2,229,000 home sets, 516,000 portables, according to Dun & Bradstreet. HOPE, FAITH AND COOL CALCULATION: An industry that lifted itself by the bootstraps during so many rugged months of 1951 goes into 1952 with high hopes and great faith — confident that the TV trade's best days are ahead, once FCC lifts the freeze and authorizes new stations to open up new markets. The TV trade pulled out of such adverse circumstances last year — made some 5.300.000 sets, sold almost as many — that some believe it can do as well or better in 1952. This despite materials shortages that could keep output down, and despite the indisputable fact that end-of-f reeze next spring isn't likely to bring many new stations into being until well into 1953. If you believe the govt, experts, the industry cannot possibly produce as many sets this year as last, due to materials restraints. But there are those who, like Admiral's Ross Siragusa (see Financial Notes) seem to think such forecasters too much inclined to sell the industry's manufacturing ingenuity short. The shortage forecasters could be wrong. The fact is that there were still plenty of sets in the trade pipelines at year's end, judging from end-of-November inventory figures (see above), and the danger of excessive inventories will persist if the set makers, distributors and retailers guess wrong again this year. * * * * * Whether the wholesalers and retailers enjoy a good 1952 depends on factors too nebulous to calculate with certainty, chief being public demand. But the manufacturers, much as they prefer to make and sell peacetime goods, are being loaded with defense orders — at least, all the big ones and many of the minor ones are — and TV-radio may prove this year to be secondary dollar-volume items for them. For example, RCA's Frank Folsom says his company's military output in 1952 "will probably equal in dollar volume the 1942 rate, when RCA plants were devoted 100% to war production." RCA's defense work, he added, should be 3-4 times greater in 1952 than in 1951, continuing still higher in 1953. Admiral, Motorola, Philco and other major producers are also loaded with military orders, though their long-range view and their public accent is on civilian