Television digest with electronic reports (Jan-Dec 1952)

with Electronics Reports WYATT BUILDING V WASHINGTON 5. D. C. • TELEPHONE STERLING 1755 Mobilization Report January 12, 1952 MORE TV-RADIO MATERIALS TO MILITARY: Govt, has decreed new cuts of more than 10% in metals destined for TV-radio-phonos and other consumer goods in April. May and June. But this time something different has been added. Second quarter will see many of America's electronic plants shifting into high gear on military production — beginning to absorb some of the shock of reduced civilian output. Based on most accurate and reliable information, and subject only to minor changes, these are amounts of controlled materials TV-radio manufacturers will be permitted to use next quarter, in terms of percentage of base period rate of use: Steel 45% (vs. 50% in first quarter 1952), copper brass mill products 29% (vs. 35%), copper wire mill products 35% (vs. 40%), aluminum 30% (vs. 35%). Average industry-wide quarterly output during base period (first half 1950) totaled about 1,557,000 TVs and 2,118,000 radios. * * * * Without major materials conservation by industry, this would slow output to a trickle. Assuming copper wire is limiting factor in TV-radio — if the industry practiced no conservation, and went into second quarter with no carryover of subassemblies or materials from first quarter, it would be able to turn out not more than 545,000 TVs, 845,000 radios — or 2,300,000 and 3,500,000 on annual basis. But that isn't the case. Bullish on industry's ingenuity, NPA electronic specialists believe carryovers and conservation — especially the latter — can stretch second-quarter output to at least 700,000 TVs, maybe close to 1,000,000. On this basis, they see first-half 1952 production approaching 1,700,000 to 2,000,000 TVs and 5,700,000-4,000,000 radios. Fingers crossed, they say they "hope" industry will get as good a break on materials in second half, and they see a total 1952 production of 3,500,000-4,000,000 TVs and 7,500,000-8,000,000 radios. They call these figures "optimistic, " admit there may be new cuts in third quarter. Yet these estimates are low compared to prognostications of many pundits in and near TV-radio industry. They're far cry, for example, from forecast by A.W. Zelomek, economist of Fairchild Publications (Retailing Daily). Mr. Zelomek steps out on king-sized limb, predicts production in 1952 "will equal [1951's] level of around 5,500,000 TV sets and 7-7,500,000 home radios [sic]." * * * * Because no consumer goods shortages have developed, NPA has decided to eliminate "essentiality" classifications it used in first quarter. The old "less essential" products — those which, in first quarter, received no more than 20% of base period copper, 10% of aluminum — will get larger allotments next quarter. In electronics industry, only jukeboxes fell within "less essential" category. New policy is that of "equality of sacrifice," DPA chief Manly Fleischmann told Joint Congressional Defense Production Committee this week. But he added: "If, in the future, serious shortages of the more essential goods develop, allotments for their production will be increased." * * ■* * Most seriously scarce material on electronics production scene is nickel — used in tubes, speakers, resistors, countless other components. Nickel situation, said Mr. Fleischmann, "is the first place where the issue of guns vs. butter really has come up. " U.S. military requirements for nickel exceed entire free world supply. To keep civilian production going, mobilizers arbitrarily nicked military requests, set aside 6% of U.S. supply for civilian goods. Remaining 94% is earmarked for military and defense-supporting production. Nickel crisis will intensify through 1952, could become stoppage point in production of electronic components as well as electric ranges, heaters, etc. 6