Television digest with electronic reports (Jan-Dec 1952)

INVENTORY UP, JANUARY BUYING HIATUS: TV inventory at factories .jumped to 239,700 units as of Jan. II, according to RTMA weekly report, up some 63,000 from 176,857 figure for just one week earlier. It was first time in 23 straight weeks there has been no diminution of inventories to report. Figure might be ominous if it weren't for fact, as explained at RTMA, that dealers usually don't take shipments until after the January shows. It's too early to say it means real stoppage of buying; and the jump is meaningless if it merely reflects pileup of new models and slowdown of shipments while manufacturers are busy showing those models at the Chicago furniture marts and their distributor meetings. TV production jumped to 102,684 as of Jan. 11 from preceding week's 69,198 (Vol. 8:2), so it seems to be returning to November-December weekly levels. Radio output was 175,981 units, up from 93,499; radio inventory 287,798, up from 283,545. Jan. 11 week's radios were 80,881 home, 22,597 portable, 22,819 clock, 47,684 auto. * * * Whether the more than 100, 000-per-week output level is maintained in ensuing weeks depends on (1) rate of depletion of the 1,500,000 or so TVs believed to be in all trade pipelines as of end of year; (2) effect of materials cuts — will they dig into TV capacity as seriously as govt, experts think (Vol. 8:1-2)? And, of course, it goes without saying that the key factor is consumer demand. With regard to materials cuts for defense needs, President Truman in his Economic Report to Congress this week stated: "Household appliances, radios, and television sets must also be cut back from recent levels. Current production of most metal-using durables will be below the level of the 1947-49 period. But, with very high existing stocks of these durables in the hands of consumers, supplies will be ample to meet essential needs." * * * * There's no shortage of components, say the manufacturers, and many are more confident than the NPA experts that the output of TVs will not have to be cut much. They think the govt, folk too inclined to underestimate the ability of the manufacturers to conserve and substitute. They recall dire forecasts last winter, too, as to the availability of raw materials and ability to produce. RTMA directors took informal poll last November, arrived at average "guesstimate" of 4,440,000 TVs and 10,900,000 radios for this year's output. But Admiral's Ross Siragusa thinks the industry can produce as many TVs as last year (5,250,000), which is thinking also of several Philco topkicks. RCA's Frank Folsom is on record as guessing 4-4,500,000; Emerson's Ben Abrams, not over 4,000,000; Hallicraf ters ' William Halligan, about 4,000,000; Crosley's John Craig, 4,500,000. RTMA chairman Robert Sprague says minimum of 4,000,000 and maximum of 5,000,000. 5jC :J< % On these points there's agreement among the manufacturers generally, as reported to NARDA's Chicago convention this week by RTMA president Glen McDaniel: (1) TV inventories will be lower and more realistic this year than last. (2) Consumer purchasing is more stable, probably will continue so, with fewer peaks and valleys than 1951. (3) While shortages may make selling easy before end of year, business as whole will be highly competitive and salesmanship may make difference between profit and loss for the dealer. (4) Military production of radio and electronics equipment will not halt the manufacture of TV and radio receivers. "As to the outlook for critical materials in 1952," said McDaniel, "I can only call attention to the public statements of top defense officials who have said that the pinch on civilian goods will get tighter before it begins to ease up." 8