Weekly television digest (Jan-Dec 1960)

VOL. 16; No. 1 3 ,/ 8% last year. Heavy concentration will be made on daytime sales by ABC-TV, with its participation strips, and NBC-TV, with its planned daytime specials. Some exploration of the magazine concept of TV networking (opart from network-owned participation properties) will be done, particularly by CBS-TV which is discussing such a move with FCC. Networks will also continue their diversification trend with overseas investments, non-TV production, licensing deals. Advertisers & Agencies: TV's rebuilt image should attract a record amount of ad dollars in 1960. TvB predicts a 10% increase in TV revenues (net time & talent) this year with network billings reaching $846 million, an increase of 8% over 1959 (more optimistic than NBC's 5-6% guesstimate) and national 6c regional spot billings hitting $520 million, a 12% jump. Local spot TV advertising will total $322 million, up 15% over 1959, says TvB. TV's share of all advertising will rise to 15% (over 14% last year). (Consultant Flichard P. Doherty's prognosis total is not very different from TvB's, but he holds TV's share of the total ad dollar in 1960 at the same 14% that was achieved in 1959. He predicts that 1959's final tote from all classes & types of sponsors will be $1,505 million. He also forecasts that '60 will see a new all-time high for all ad spending — up 10.8% to $11.9 billion.) Advertisers will be more concerned with "image programming," such as news specials, and put less emphasis on drive for ratings, ANA officials told us. Agencies forecast higher proportions of their incomes will come from fees, research & marketing consultation, to offset dwindling profit margins from the 15% agency commissions which must cover higher-salaried TV creative staffs. Allocations: FCC & OCDM will come up with a report stating that no vhf channels can be spared for TV by the military — or that they can be spared only if Congress gives the military hundreds of millions of dollars and a decade to shift to uhf. Congress won't give it the money. Net result will be that FCC will conclude it must make do with present 12 vhf channels and keep trying to utilize uhf. This will produce several vhf drop-ins for major cities via mileage cuts & other technical changes — but no wholesale or drastic moves. At same time. Commission will again look to uhf, perhaps actually proposing a long-range shift of all or part of TV to uhf; but this would be only a proposal. New 1960 TV Outlets: Our prediction of 20 new stations for 1959 was conservative — 24 made the grade. This year we're saying not more than 25 will get on the air — and are fairly confident figure won't go above that mark. At least 5 of 1960 starters will be educational non-commercial outlets. Our prediction for 1958 was "not as many as 40" and 36 got on the air. The 1947 prediction was 40 — which turned out to be right on the nose. Our estimates are based on number of CP holders who actually have equipment on hand or who have signed network affiliation. Total CPs outstanding now number 182, but 127 of these are for uhf construction. In Canada, 7 stations began operation in 1959. Slightly more could start in 1960 as there are 7 licenses outstanding for stations which haven't begun operating as yet. However, Canadian picture could change rapidly if BBG authorizes 2nd stations in the large metropolitan areas there (Vol. 15:31, 43). Network Programming: 1960 will bring the firmer creative control by networks that everyone expects, following the trend that began in the wake of the quiz scandals. But don't expect a major program revolution. Mid-season & summer replacements and even most new shows next fall will still be entertainment packages, and network-purchased film shows will have familiar formats. Scheduled for an increase, however, ore prestige information & public-affairs shows on all 3 networks. ABC-TV, although still building its nighttime schedules around telefilms, will make serious efforts to step up its roster of live & tape specials — a field in which NBC-TV will continue to lead, followed by CBS-TV. Internal program regulation will grow, not lessen, at network level. Networks, producers, clients & agencies will face some stress & strain in learning to live with new rules for program & commercial honesty, but most networks expect self-policing to be operating smoothly by mid-summer. Networks won't back away from their new rules, but some changes may be necessary to create situations that are workable for all. TV Film: Look for the powerful TV-film industry to gain even more production momentum this year, despite its so-so achievements in quality during 1959. Although there will probably be a record number of cancelations in the spring, most, of not all, will be replaced by new filmed entries, as in past. Growing steadily, industry will probably hit $155 million in film production this year, up $15 million from 1959. $15 million.