Weekly television digest (Jan-Dec 1960)

VOL. 16: No. 1 17 • • • JANUARY 4, 1960 1960's PROSPECTS — GAINS ON ALL FRONTS: The industry's leaders expect a continu ation this year of the gradual across-the-board increase which made 1959 the record year for consumer electronics. This they indicated almost unanimously in our annual survey printed 2 weeks ago (Vol. 15:51 pl4). Emboldened by these generally bullish forecasts — and with the knowledge that we're in the best of company — this week we again venture our own (and more particularized) forecasts of what the new year holds in store for consumer electronics. Our prediction track record for 1959 was good. Just one year ago we forecast 1959's retail TV sales & production at 5.8 million sets (Vol. 14:52 pll) . We were right on the button as far as sales were concerned, but low in our production estimate — not having foreseen the late-1959 inventory buildup. We correctly foresaw "a shade better business" during first-half 1959, "followed by substantial improvement in the last 6 months." Keying the 1959 TV gain, we said, would be such gadgets as improved remote-control devices and the 23-in. square-cornered picture tube. We were a little bit off in some respects. We said TV inventories would be kept at lower level, and that more than 50% of radio production would be transistorized (actual figure was closer to 40%). But we were probably about right in our prediction that stereo sales would soar from 750,000 in 1958 to approximately 3 million in 1959 (out of a total of nearly 4 million phonos sold). In forecasting for 1960, we're tempted to qualify our predictions by saying that in case of prolonged major strikes, earthquakes, floods, tidal waves or a Presidential election victory by the Greenback Party, all bets are off. With these qualifications as an escape hatch, here's how 1960 looks to us: TV Retail Sales: With all of home electronics sharing in anticipated boom in consumer durables, we're still inclined to go along with more conservative industry leaders in predicting an increase of about 5% or a little more in TV unit sales to consumers — bringing 1960 retail sales to between 6.1 & 6.2 million. Increase will be sparked by rising number of sets-in-use now ready for scrap heap, quality of new sets, unprecedented ad campaigns, gimmicks & gadgets — plus excitement of Presidential election campaigns, always a good TV salesman. TV Set Prices: There will be no across-the-board price increases. Rather, 1960 trend will be continuance of last year's successful practice of upgrading through stress on higher-end units. Trend of prices in low-end promotional sets, in fact, will be downward, with $189.95 a common starting-point for 21-in. table models. Nevertheless, average factory price of TV sets sold will rise from the $140 of 1959 to around $145. TV Innovations: Don't look for tunnel-diode, parametric-amplifier or genuine picture-on-wall sets in 1960. The 2 innovations will be: the 19-in. tube, which will come out in quantity around mid-year to become an immediate best-seller, taking over much of the 17-in. tube's present territory; 2 or possibly 3 more battery-operated transistor TVs at around $250, which will be good traffic-builders but far from mass items. By year's end the 23-in. tube will replace the 21-in. in all but low-end lines. Fine-furniture trend will get even more emphasis than in 1959. The "home entertainment center" concept — TV-radio-stereo in one cabinet — will put combinations back in the picture. Industry Competition: Record ad budgets and increasingly improving product will mark the most intensive TV industry competition in history — with each of the industry's "Big 6" battling for honor of No. 1 spot in unit sales. Product improvement drive by all major makers will be aimed primarily at cutting down frequency of service. Color TV : No major breakthrough here — either in lab or marketplace — but a steady improvement in sales & public reaction, with 1960 color sales 30% -50% higher than 1959 (our guess is that around 120,000 color sets were sold last year). End of 1960 may see some more major manufacturers considering re-entry into color field. There's one 1960-1961 long-shot: possibility of experimental imports of Japanese color sets selling at somewhat lower prices than U.S. models.