Weekly television digest (Jan-Dec 1960)

VOL. 16: No. 5?. 19 Industry Leaders Forecast 1961 Consumer Electronics Outlook Text of Responses in Our Annual Survey of TV-Radio-Phono Prospects Admiral Pres. Ross D. Siragusa: Last year’s lengthy steel strike and the subsequent race to fill pipelines were forerunners of the general weakness that overtook the appliance industry and the nation’s economy during 1960. It takes about a year for the country to recover from the sort of economic indigestion we have been experiencing. Fortunately, manufacturers readjusted their production schedules as soon as the signs of weakness became apparent. As a result, excess inventories have been worked off and production is at a realistic rate. We foresee a pickup in TV movement by midyear and anticipate that 1961 unit sales will equal this year’s 5.7 million and may possibly exceed it. The radio industry has been experiencing a healthy growth. 1960 will be one of the largest radio years [for] our company and the boom is expected to continue into 1961. The current squeeze on manufacturing profits will continue into next year, with little change in prices. Some relief is hoped for from the constant pressure of limitless Japanese electronic exports to this country. We believe the public and members of Congress are becoming increasingly aware of the damage being inflicted on suppliers to the electronics trade and on American workers. • Centralab Pres. W. S. Parsons: We expect Centralab business to be, on the whole, equal to that of 1960, but on top of this we expect to introduce new products into new markets in electronics which should bring us a minimum of 10% increase over 1960. Very frankly, we do not look for the radio and TV entertainment field to show any material gain over 1960. • El A Pres. L. Berkley Davis: We believe the total [electronics] business will advance another 6% during 1961 to a $10.3-billion total. The prospect for consumer-goods sales will be substantially brightened if PCC, as expected, soon establishes transmission standards for FM-stereo-radio broadcasting. Three of the industry’s principal segments set new sales peaks during 1960. The 1961 pattern is expected to be about the same. 'The comparative figures for sales at the factory level, in billions of dollars, are: % % 1959 1960 Change 1961 Change Consumer products $2.0 $2.1 +5% $ 2.2 -f6% Industrial products 1.6 1.75 +9% 1.9 -|-8% Military products 4.7 B.O 4-6% 5.3 4-6% Replacement components 0.9 0.9 — 0.9 — TOTAL $9.2 $9.75 +6% $10.3 +6% Emerson Radio Pres. Benjamin Abrams: Based upon a material improvement in Emerson’s shipments during the months of October and November, as well as my expectation for the month of December, I am inclined to project a much improved sales picture for 1961 insofar as this company is concerned. We look for an increase in sales of TV and phonographs and a possible “holding of the line” in radio. Industry-wise, I am inclined to feel that the first 6 months of 1961 may show a decline in sales as compared with the first 6 months of 1960. However, the last 6 months of the year should show a marked improvement, which may more than offset the poor sales of the early part of the year. • GE Radio & TV div. gen. mgr. Hershner Cross: In 1961, TV industry sales are expected to be at the same level as in 1960. There will be an increasing demand for full power-transformer portable units and a re-emphasis on quality performance and set reliability. No TV-Radio-Phono Predictions at a Glance Those organizations whose officials made specific predictions for 1961 industry-wide TV, radio or phono sales & output in our survey are listed here with their forecasts: Admiral — TV sales equal to 1960’s 5.7 million units or slightly better, radio boom continuing into 1961. Centralab — ^No material gain over 1960 by TVradio entertainment field. EIA — Consumer-electronics dollar volume gain 6% to $2.2 billion from 1960’s 2.1 billion. Emerson — Improvement in last 6 months of 1961 may more than offset poor sales of early months. GE — TV distributor sales at same level as 1960, radio sales slightly lower with pickup toward year’s end, distributor console phono sales dropping as much as 7%, portable phonos down 10%. Motorola — Distributor sales of b&w TV 5.2 million, table radios 3.2 million, clock radios 3 million, portable radios 4.2 million, stereo 2.8 million. Muter — Production of 6 million TVs, 10.5 million home radios, 5.5 million auto radios, 4 million phonos. National Video — TV production 5.5-to-5.6 million. Olympic — Retail TV sales of more than 5.8 million, stereo sales holding up correspondingly. Packard Bell — TV sales 6-to-6.2 million, phonos 5 million (including 650,000 radio console combinations), home radio 12 million. Howard W. Sams — Factory sales of 6 million TVs, 10 million home radios, slightly over 6 million auto radios, 6 million phonos. Sprague Electric — TV retail sales & production of 5.7 million, radios (including auto) dropping to 15-to-15.5 million, entertainment-electronics volume dipping to about $1.8 billion. Standard Kollsman — TV production & sales of about 6 million. Stromberg-Carlson — Phono factory sales near this year’s 4.9 million, dollar volume rising about $10 million to $450 million. Sylvania — Retail TV sales 5.9 million, radio 11.8 million, hi-fi & stereo 5 million. Westinghouse — TV sales 6.1 million, home radio 10.7 million, phonos 3 million, hi-fi 1.5 million. Zenith — TV distributor sales of 6-to-6.2 million.