Weekly television digest (Jan-Dec 1960)

VOL. 16; No. 52 Sprague Electric Chmn.-Treas. Robert C. Sprague: The outlook for entertainment electronics in 1961 is certainly far from clear at present, but recent surveys have shown a desire on the part of consumers to step up their buying plans for durable goods. I would expect that sales at retail in the first half of 1961 might be below 1960 by some lO-to-15% but that 2nd half levels should show a favorable comparison, with a possibility of quite strong demand late in the year if business conditions recover as some recent forecasts suggest they will. I look for TV sales & production to be approximately equal at 5.7 million sets for the year, but I look for some decline in radios from the high rate in 1961 to more nearly the 1959 level of 15-to-15.5 million sets. I therefore believe it is realistic to assume a modest drop in the total value of home-entertainment electronics to about $1.8 billion, slightly below the $1.9 billion of 1960, but above the $1.7 billion of 1959. Standard Kollsman Pres. J. O. Burke: It would appear to us that TV production for the year 1961 should level off at around 6 million sets, barring a deepening of the present recession. It is my feeling that with replacements and new homes on a fairly constant basis, the industry can foresee a leveling off of production and sales at a rate of around 6 million sets annually. Standard hopes to continue its pattern of increasing steadily the percentage of sets which contain its tuners. • Stromberg-Carlson Pres. James D. MacLean: First-quarter 1961 automobile production schedules, released in Detroit a few days ago, indicate a relatively strong first quarter for automotive manufacturers despite softness in other areas of the economy. We anticipate that auto radio production will keep pace with passenger car output. Current outlook is for industry auto radio sales in 1961 to approximate the 6.2 million units produced in 1960. It is anticipated that stereo, which is still relatively new as far as family ownership, will continue to increase its market penetration in 1961. While 65% of total U.S. households have phonographs (vs. 90% for TV), most of these are old monaural units and will be replaced with stereo units in the future. Of importance to the industry also is that dollar volume is rising at a faster rate than unit sales. This can be seen in the fact that consoles, which amounted to only 6.5% of total phonograph sales as recently as 1955, now account for more than 30% of industry output. This fact, coupled with the increasing percentage of stereo vs. monaural phonographs being sold, will raise total factory volume to about $440 million this year, a 20% rise over 1959’s $372 million. While total phonograph unit sales in 1961 will hover at near this year’s 4.9 million level, dollar volume will rise about $10 million to $450 million (factory sales). Sylvania Home Electronics Corp. Pres, Peter J. Grant: [Predicts retail sales of 5.9 million TVs, 11.8 million radios (including imports), 5 million stereo & hi-fi units.] • Westinghouse TV-Radio div. gen. mgr. O. H. Yoxsimer: The TV-radio industry will follow the pattern of the expected economic conditions in 1961 by showing relatively 21 little improvement early in the year, but in the latter part we should see an upswing in unit volume as industry iinventories become readjusted, and general economic conditions improve. We believe that TV sales in 1961 will be in the neighborhood of 6.1 million sets; radio, 10.7 million; phonograph 3 million; and high fidelity 1.5 million. • Zenith Sales Corp. Pres. Leonard C. Truesdell: In general it is my opinion that the TV industry will do well to show only a slight gain in 1961. I think the industry should perhaps think in terms of 6 to 6.2 million units. In favor of this estimate is the fact that the industry had had a disastrous experience from August on during the present year. The general economic condition is expected to improve in the last half of next year so the industry should gain in sales in the last half of 1961 over the last half of 1960. Also in favor of the above estimate is the fact that the replacement market should be some 300,000 to 400,000 units larger than in 1960 simply because there are more sets getting to the age when repairs are not worthwhile, and, of course, we should expect to trade in more of the small picture-size units on those offering larger pictures. Against the possibility of an increase of any importance is the fact that the general economic conditions are expected to remain low during the first 6 months of next year. The industry has shown a decline in 1960 for every month from July on. There is no reason to believe that because of a calendar date business will suddenly get better on Jan. 1, 1961. I think the industry will be hard put to equal the first-half sales of 1960. We must take into consideration another very important factor. During 1961 we will not have the benefit of the newness we had in 1960 of the 19-in. & 23-in. sizes. I see no chance for anything exciting in the way of new product developments to help industry sales in 1961. Underlying all of these facts and perhaps more important than anything else, it is the writer’s opinion that our industry has suffered for the past several years because of the very poor TV programs which have been made available. We have just not had programming which would renew or revitalize consumers’ interest in viewing TV. These programs have not excited the public sufficiently to create a reason for buying new sets. RCA Chmn. David Sarnoff’s traditional year-end statement announced “record 1960 sales,” although no figures were revealed. He was bullish on color: “In 1960,” he said in part, “when industry sales of consumer durables eased off and b&w TV dropped 7%, color TV showed the sharpest rise of any major consumer product on the market — up 30% over 1959. RCA’s own profit for 1960 on color-receiver sales was measured in 7 figures.” He was optimistic about the forthcoming year & decade: “I share the viewpoint of many economists that this softness [of the economy] will continue through the first half of 1961 and that an upturn will occur in the second half of the year. But the month-in, month-out fluctuations of the economic index must not obscure the underlying dynamism of research & technology. This is the enduring reality which guarantees economic growth in the years ahead . » . The products of research, those in being now & those yet to come, will double RCA’s sales volume before the. ’60s end.’’