Boxoffice (Apr-Jun 1939)

PREDICTS TELEVISION WILL BOOST PICTURES, NOT PROVE ANY TO-THE-DEATH COMPETITOR TELEVISION PR OMiS S MAP Where Stations Are Ready, Under ConstructionJjRrOposed (April 1, 1939) RADIO 'TtftvtiwM. RETAILING For Over Half , the Current Answer Is "Never" — Analysis of Limitations And Cost Points to a Role as Auxiliary New York — “A careful appraisal of all the potentials of television and all its known limitations, inevitably must lead to the conclusion that it has neither the essential characteristics nor the scope to replace wholly, or seriously threaten, the existence of any other industry. Instead it may be expected to enhance the opportunities of some and supplement the profitproducing capacity of others.” The observation stems from an article in the current issue of Printers’ Ink Monthly, entitled: “Television— Will It Be the Century’s Wonder Industry?” by O. Fred Rost, editor, Radio and Television Retailing. Although Rost says various film producers are witnessing the widespread public interest over television with “some apprehension” over the conceivable drastic cut in theatre attendance and a threat to the industry’s enormous investment in production and distribution, he remarks: “A careful analysis of known limitations of television, program-producing costs and potential ‘circulation’ would indicate that those dire expectations are unwarranted. Instead it appears that television may create a supplementary market and source of income for the movie industry, just as it must for the radio manufacturing and broadcasting industries. A Likely Customer “In fact,” he goes on, “indications are even at this early date that television is destined to become a real customer of the motion picture industry rather than a competitor. It must be conceded that movie producers have reduced their work to a science, they know the technique, know all the shortcuts, all the tricks, to transpose action into acceptable film footage. “Also it is inconceivable that with the possible exception of New York, Chicago and Los Angeles, television broadcasters could possibly produce sufficient numbers of hours of original programs to supply the length of daily schedules that will be almost indispensable if the operation is to earn a profit. “Thus,” Rost adds, there can be but one answer, namely: to get films, film shows staged by movie producers on their home lot and syndicated to station operators like a comic strip is to the newspapers. All this means business to the motion picture industry, means an opportunity to employ profitably otherwise idle equipment and personnel, means more income and profit from already existing investment. “Nor does it appear that attendance at movie houses will be threatened seriously. (Continued on page 10) New York — For those who are not within range of the two stations, one in New York and the other Los Angeles, now operating more or less regular television programs, there is at present no answer to the question “How soon?” says O. Fred Rost, author of “Television — Will It Be the Century’s Wonder Industry?” currently running in Printers’ Ink Monthly. Rost says preliminary calculations indicate that even the smallest transmitting station would have to find at least 100,000 inhabitants within its effective range in order for its owners to have a fair chance for their investment to prove profitable, or at least Washington — Television offers no immediate threat to the motion picture exhibitors outside the very largest cities and years will elapse before nation-wide service will be available, it is predicted by the federal communications commission’s television committee, reporting on the status of this newest branch of radio. Picture radio is barely emerging from the technical-research stage of development, the committee declared. Methods finally adopted may be very different from those now used, and there are a number of serious problems, largely of a financial nature, which must be disposed of. That television eventually may become a great industry was admitted by the committee, but the radio companies were warned they should not push it with undue haste and lack of coordination which would offset its benefits by derangement of the self-sustaining. The above chart shows there are 96 such areas with over 100,000 population and, while the population crowded into those areas represents over 45 per cent of the total population, the areas themselves account for only six per cent of the total territory. “Thus,” Rost concludes, “even if conceivably all the metropolitan areas did have television broadcasting, there would still remain over half of our population in over 90 per cent of our area for whom the answer to the question ‘How soon?’ at present must be ‘Never.’ ” motion picture and other industries with which it will come in competition. “While television as a major industry may have distinct social advantages through the creation of new employment, it appears necessary that all concerned exercise caution to minimize disadvantages which could result in unnecessary displacement of labor in industries which may be adversely affected by television service on a national scale,” it was declared. Television development will proceed in three stages, the committee pointed out. It has passed through the first of these, that of technical research, is embarked upon the second, that of experimental operation, and eventually will reach the third, that of constructing stations throughout the country. But, it was declared, costs of constructing and operating stations and (Continued on page 12) Years Before Television Force Will Reach Hinterland, View BOXOFFICE :: May 27, 1939 9