Boxoffice barometer (1941)

Vke 0^ P^UKL4x:il^ loA f94f By IVAN SPEAR The production outlook for 194041 presents what is possibly the biggest paradox since the fledgling days when a handful of pioneers, considered crackpots by their theatrical contemporaries, moulded a new industry out of celluloid and then suddenly found themselves being hailed as the creators of a new "art.” For, on the one hand, never before at this stage of the producingdistributing season has there been so large a backlog of finished film in storage and awaiting release dates which, in many instances, are months in the future. At the same time, never before has there been quite so much uncertainty, expressed or merely indicated by film-making and filmselling executives, as to what the future may hold in store for the industry at large and Hollywood in particular. Yet the traceable reasons behind each of these opposing situations are, in some respects, identical. As to the vast quantities of product completed and salted away for future reference, the explanation is, at least, two-fold. As the European War plunged into its second year, and while the 1940-41 season was barely getting underway, film companies which entertained only the vaguest ideas concerning where the tide of international unrest might sweep them, stepped on the throttle. But it was not only the war which was acting as a spur. Unionism, which has been growing by leaps and bounds on the Hollywood scene for several years, continued to gain in strength as studio workers in virtually every classification either organized bargaining units or, through guilds and crafts already established, filed demands for wage increases, shorter hours, and improvements in working conditions the sum total of which threatened to cost producers uncounted millions of dollars in added payrolls. The more pictures that could be completed before this crisis had to be faced, the general reasoning was, the easier it would be to keep mounting negative costs down. The war, and the resultant collapse of a large proportion of the industry's foreign markets, with its consequence in the form of seri ously curtailed revenue, is one of the predominant factors in the perplexity with which film leaders face the future. Obviously, and this has been said many times by company executives, the lost markets must be replaced, either by new ones elsewhere or by an expansion of domestic business. And the manner in which this is to be done has not yet been clearly established, although there have been experiments in the direction of boosted admissions on special attractions, a more strenuous effort to sell new films to the American public and, most importantly, a striving to create better, more saleable product. Too, looming large on the horizon is the government's consent decree, arrived at as the outcome of the all-industry suit, and the provisions of which, to put it mildly, have had Hollywood running around in circles since the film-making center has begun to realize the decree may have a farreaching effect on production methods and procedure. One thing is definite, however. Come what may, enough film lies in the vaults to carry most studios well into the spring, though a blitzkrieg might stop every camera tomorrow. Of the approximately 475 pictures which Hollywood, in its respective sales conventions, announced it would produce in aggregate for 1940-41, about 300, or more than 60 per cent, have been completed — and this at a time when there are nearly six months to go before the season is ended. Furthermore, there is no indication, definite or otherwise, that the major studios contemplate curtailing their lineups for 1941-42, although that possibility is always more or less evident. As yet, there is not one single discernible instance where such a cut may be under consideration, while at at least one studio. Monogram, the plan is to increase next year's lineup to 46 from the 1940-41 total of 40. Additionally, President Barney Balaban of Paramount has gone on record as predicting the quantity will increase during the coming year, citing his own company as one spot where the boost may be made. The war, and increasing public interest therein, will strongly affect production schedules, and has undoubtedly established a trend which will reflect itself in the coming year's product — which trend is analyzed in detail elsewhere in this issue. Too, the filmusical will enjoy a renaissance, while the super-budgeted western will continue to hold a prominent place in the lineup of product to come. Biographical material, however, once an important screen staple, is almost non-existent. In the musical category will be such films as Columbia's "Betty "Coed," "Mermaids on Parade" and "Eadie Was a Lady." M-G-M lists "The Big Time," "Babes on Broadway," "Smilin' Through" and "Lady Be Good." Paramount will have "The Birth of the Blues," "Paramount Parade" and "The Road to Zanzibar." RKO Radio's entries will include "Sunny" and "Hang Out the Moon." Republic plans "The Old Grey Mare" and "Milkman's Matinee." 20th Century-Fox is preparing "The Great American Broadcast," "Song and Dance Man" and "Miami." Warner will have "Navy Blues." In the top-scaled sagebrush division will be such titles as Columbia's "Texas," Metro's "Billy the Kid," Paramount's "Pioneer Woman" and "Rurales," 20th Century-Fox's "Sioux City" and Warner's "Frontier Doctor," with a number of others planned. Biographies, however, are limited to "Lucky Baldwin," from 20th Century-Fox; "Sergeant York," from Warner; "New Wine," the story of Franz Shubert, from United Artists, and "American Vagabond," the life of O. Henry, from Paramount. A list of all announced product to be made by the major studios within the next six to eight months is contained in another section of this issue, under the title "Looking Ahead." Still largely in the guess-work category is the manner in which the consent decree is going to alter the production setup. Among the obvious possibilities brought into sharp focus through consideration of the decree and its terms are these; Because the blocks-of-five selling plan provides no limit to the number of pictures which may, in blocks of five each, be sold at once if all are completed, studios may build up enormous backlogs and then lapse into production lulls, creating periods of feast and famine for all (Continued on page 16) 6 BOXOFFICE BAROMETER