Broadcasting (July - Dec 1938)

July Network Billings Decline 6.3%; Seven-Month Billings 4.2% Over 1937 Time buyers of J. Walter Thompson Co.. Los Angeles, expressed the belief that business in general is picking up and as a result advertisers are more confident in the future, and will use more radio, spot as well as network. This opinion was also expressed by account executives of Lord & Thomas, that city, who also prophesied a good season for spot radio. Gene Ramsey, executive of Chas. H. Mayne Co., was optimistic and stated that many clients of that agency will continue their present schedule for the time being, but others were planning fall spot campaigns. He said that a better feeling exists generally, and with business on the upward climb, more spot radio will definitely be used. Other account executives interviewed were just as enthusiastic; many frankly stated that their clients were undecided on fall plans and were watchfully waiting, but as a whole Southern California agencies predicted that this fall will be one of the busiest for radio. This optimism was expressed almost without a single discordant note. SAN FRANCISCO From every perspective the radio picture in the San Francisco metropolitan area gives an indication of being a rosy one during the latter portion of 1938. The consensus of agency time buyers, station managers and sales managers is that the broadcasting business will enjoy its most fruitful season this fall and winter. Some agency executives went so far as to state this fall would top all past sales records for air sponsorship. All those interviewed were extremely optimistic and in many instances were readying more shows this year than ever before. From present indications San Francisco once again will come into its own as the point of origin for any number of regional network broadcasts. As far as could be ascertained no new transcontinental shows are planned, but a considerable amount of production will be done for XBC, CBS. MutualDon Lee and California Radio System. Many radio sponsors have already increased their budget for broadcasting or are planning such a move in the next few months. Some accounts have increased their air time from 10 to 300'7. Robert Davis, San Francisco manager of Allied Advertising Agencies, stated that 10 of the retail accounts his agency handles here will show a minimum increase in radio advertising in the fall of 25%. Of this 40 % will be spot announcements and 60r'f studio programs. Caryl Coleman, radio director of Botsford, Constantine & Gardner, who has been in radio here for more than 10 years, forecast San Francisco's best fall in history. His agency, he stated, probably will double the amount of radio shows it had on Coast networks last year. Rufus Rhoades & Co., one of the most recent to add a radio department, was enthusiastic about the upturn in the broadcasting business. Richard Holman, radio executive, stated the company would COMBINED billings for the coastto-coast networks for July showed a loss of 6.3 % when compared with those for the same month last year, the totals being $4,493,175 for July, 1938, and $4,797,320 for July. 1937. For the seven-month period of the year, however, 1938 billings are 4.2% ahead of last year, with combined cumulative billings for Jan.-July inclusive 1938 totaling $42,440,323 as compared with $40,714,312 for the same seven months of 1937. July's drop under last year's figure is due to a decrease of 31.2% in CBS billings, which dropped from $1,988,412 in July. 1937 to $1,367,357 in July, 1938. This was more than enough to offset NBC's gain of 9.3%, from $2,707,450 in July last year to $2,958,710 for this Julv, and Mutual's 64.7% gain from $101,458 last year to $167,108 this year. Despite this larere percentage decrease, July, 1938, was the second best July in CBS history, surpassed only by July, 1937. All Show Increases Cumulative totals for the year to date show all network billings ahead of last year's. NBC's advertising billings for this period have risen from $22,655,557 in 1937 to $23,982,384, a gain of 5.9^. CBS, with $16,948,652 so far this year have a definite increase this fall both in spot announcements and programs. Several accourtts placed through this agency are planning to increase their radio time, he stated. Hassell Smith, San Francisco manager of Long Advertising Service, one of the city's biggest time buyers, likewise forecast a recordsmashing fall season. A number of his radio clients, he stated, plan an increase in time, others now dormant will return to the air and a number of first-timers are currently being groomed for broadcasting. "Business is definitely looking up in radio," said Walter Burke, radio executive of McCann-E rickson in commenting on the prospects for the autumn season. Standard Oil Co. of California, major occount, is in its 11th year of radio advertising and most of the other accounts which are spread over stations in the West are either continuing "as is" or adding to thenbudget for radio. In addition other new shows are in the offing. A record fall for radio was also foreseen by Marigold Cassin, radio time buyer of Erwin, Wasey & Co. "All of the advei-tisers we currently have on the air will remain on," she said, "and in addition some of the others who dropped radio are coming back. It looks like a great windup in 1938 for radio." CANADA While most autumn and early winter radio campaigns will not be signed until late August, practically all Canadian advertising agencies believed this autumn will be a good one for radio. The least optimistic stated that this season's campaign will be on a par with is compared with $16,791,677, has a gain of 0.9%. MBS shows $1,509,287 for 1938 to date, 19.1% ahead of last year's $1,267,078. With all signs pointing to the best fall in network history, there is now no doubt that 1938 will pass all previous years in network revenue, even if August should follow July in showing a decrease as compared with last year. Gross Monthly Time Sales % Gain 19SS over 19S7 19ST NBC Jan. $3,793,516 7.19b 53,541.999 Feb. 3.498.053 6.1 3,295.782 March 3,806,831 6.3 3.614,283 April 3.310,505 1.0 3.277,837 May 3,414.200 6.2 3.214.819 June 3.200.569 6.6 3.003,387 July 2,958.710 9.3 2.707,450 CBS Jan. S2.879.945 21.1% $2,378,620 Feb. 2,680,335 18.4 2.264,317 March 3,034.317 18.5 2.559.716 April 2,424.180 —5.4 2.663,478 May 2,442.283 — 4.6 2.560.558 June 2,120.235 -14.4 2,476.576 July 1.367.357 -31.2 1,988,412 MBS Jan. $ 269.894 26.3% $ 213.748 Feb. 253,250 9.0 232,286 March 232.877 — 5.9 247,431 April 189.545 —5.3 200,134 May 194.201 25.6 •154.633 June 202.412 72.4 117.388 Julv 167.108 64.7 101,458 last year, and a large number of time buyers stated that time is going to be hard to obtain on most Canadian stations during the next few months. Woe to the advertiser who leaves his radio campaign off too long, opine these agency executives, for that advertiser is going to find that time will be hard to buy during the best hours of the day. The early summer has not been good with broadcasting stations, but as if overnight the latter part of July saw a change in the advertisers' view, and agencies were swamped with inquiries about radio campaigns and survey services to make surveys of various sections of the Dominion. A number of advertisers who have never tried radio are now working on plans for national coverage and a number of big advertisers in other media have started or are planning test programs in key cities. Radio is to be used this year as a supplement to newspaper advertising by several national advertisers, according to one leading agency executive. Many fall radio campaigns are not settled in July or even early August because national advertisers wait for the reaction of the Canadian National Exhibition at Toronto. This fair, the world's largest annual exhibition, celebrates its Diamond Jubilee this year from August 26 to Sept. 10, and according to its attendance, the interest its exhibits arouse in the Canadian public, which attends two million strong during the two weeks, Canadian advertisers to a certain extent gauge their fall campaigns. Everv important advertiser exhibits at the C. N. E. The bumper grain harvest expected in the Canadian West this year accounts for the optimistic reports from many agencies, and the early booking by a number of advertisers who would ordinarily wait till late August but are booking early this year to get preferential time placements. An idea of how tight time is going to be in the West this autumn is given by H. C. Skinner, manager of the Winnipeg office of Norris-Patterson, who states: "We can definitely inform you that the bookings over all stations in Western Canada are the best in the history of the business. Some of the larger stations have not at the moment a single spot to sell .... The excellent crop prospect is entirely responsible, and we anticipate all forms of advertising, including newspapers, to jump all advertising schedules for late 1938 and 1939." Some Recession Noted While Canadian business in general has not felt the severe setback noticeable in the United States during the early part of 1938, there has been a slight decline in business. Now that business is better across the international border, Canadian business should improve. What happens in the United States follows in Canada, with less severity as a rule. Latest Dominion Bureau of Statistics survey shows the trend of economic conditions averaging slightly higher, and the number on relief down 31% from a year ago, speaking well for employment conditions which have been ahead of a year ago except for June which showed a slight drop. The Canadian Broadcasting Corp. expects as many network shows as during the past winter when it began importing United States network shows. It has already booked for September and October six American originating network shows which have been off during the summer in Canada, though some of them were running in the United States. All Canadian originating network shows have not yet been booked, but three are definitely on for revival in the autumn. Many Canadian advertising agencies are averse to announcing plans of their clients until the programs are on the air or a few days previous, being unwilling even to give names of their clients and whether or not they will use radio. But all state they have numerous shows in the planning stage or have contracts about to be signed, or radio campaigns already signed. What They Think Opinions of agency executives include: Don Henshaw of A. McKimm Ltd., Toronto office — "There is a definite trend to radio. We have a number of new accounts, and expect our radio placements will be close to 40 per cent ahead of last vear." C. W. McQuillan of CockfieldBrown & Co., Toronto office — "Business prospects are very good. Time will be scarce on many stations." T. J. Henry of N. W. Ayer & Son of Canada, Toronto office — "Radio will be hot this fall, with business prospects very good." G. A. Phare of R. C. Smith & Son, Toronto — "There will be a big fall and winter in radio in Canada. 1938 has so far been better than last year, and we expect a bigger BROADCASTING • Broadcast Advertising August 15, 1938 • Page 57