Broadcasting Telecasting (Oct-Dec 1963)

Rogers of Florida takes 'sounding' on ratings situation A member of the House subcommittee that investigated ratings in the spring said last week that "it is past time for [broadcasting] to get out of the numbers racket so that television programs watched by the American people are not artificially distorted by ratings." Representative Paul G. Rogers (DFla. ) of the House Special Subcommittee on Investigations made the statement in a brief speech in the House on Wednesday (Nov. 13). He said later that "I personally think things are dragging" and that the A. C. Nielsen Co. is not cooperating with the National Association of Broadcasters committee on ratings. In his speech. Representative Rogers charged that Nielsen "is reported to be bringing about the death of certain programs . . ." despite subcommittee revelations on "the unreliability and the distortions present in the rating methods and figures." The congressman has previously discussed federal licensing of ratings services as a remedy for audience research problems unless broadcasters Rep. Rogers and the ratings firms "clean house." What caused Rep. Rogers to make his remarks last week, he said, was his receipt Wednesday of a letter from a "large . . . New York station representative firm" which he declined to identify by name. The letter stated that reports on efforts to improve ratings "gave the impression not much change has come out . . ." and that the "present influence of ratings on broadcasting is probably at an all-time high," the congressman said. He added that he had discussed the matter with Representative Oren Harris (D-Ark.), chairman (story page 76), and that they agreed "we need to see something concrete . . . and I expect the ratings services to do this." His speech, he said, "is more or less a sounding." Forecast on Nielsen TV nearly correct SOME HIGHER, SOME LOWER THAN NBC'S ESTIMATE NBC's predictions of the latest national Nielsen ratings for nighttime TV programs proved last week to be a little high in the case of its own — and ABC-TV's — averages and a little low on CBS-TV's. But they successfully named nine of the top 10 programs, including the first five in rank order, and correctly ranked the networks by nights of the week in most cases, missing completely in none. This evaluation was offered by competent sources last week after comparing the projections made by the NBC research department (Broadcasting, Nov. 1 1 ) with the actual results shown by Nielsen's second national report for October, published last Tuesday for the two weeks ended Oct. 27. Estimates ■ The NBC advance estimate had predicted NBC would pull within four-tenths of a point of CBS in average rating, giving CBS a 19, NBC an 18.6 and ABC a 16. Actually, the Nielsen results showed a 1.1 -point difference between the front runners, putting CBS at 19.2, NBC 18.1 and ABC 15.8. On a program-by-program basis, NBC's projections of the ratings of 89 individual shows were within ninetenths of a point of the Nielsen figures, on the average. The biggest miss was a 3.1 overestimation on one show. At the other extreme, the projections were correct to the last tenth of a point on three programs. The biggest variations were among the highest rated shows, which statisticians say is mathematically normal. In 40% of the cases the individual program ratings projections were said to come within one half a rating point of the result shown by Nielsen. The projections also had listed 17 CBS shows, five on NBC and 1 1 on ABC as having declined two or more share-of-audience points between the first and second 30-market Nielsens for October. Of this group, all but two on each network were said to have shown declines of at least two share points in last week's national report. Gains ■ Similarly, the NBC study had listed seven CBS, 14 NBC and six ABC programs as having gained two or more share points between the first and second 30-market reports. Of these, all but three NBC, one CBS and two ABC shows also gained two or more share points in the national. The NBC projections correctly predicted CBS would be first on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday nights and second on Sunday; that NBC would be first on Friday and Sunday, second on Monday and Wednesday and third on Tuesday; and that ABC would be second on Tuesday and third on Monday, Wednesday, Thursday, Saturday and Sunday. The projections erred in predicting NBC would be first and CBS second on Thursdays and that CBS would be first and NBC second on Saturdays; in both cases, the positions were reversed in the Nielsen report. They also erred in ranking ABC second and CBS third on Friday; in these, too, the rankings were reversed. In picking the top 10 programs NBC's estimates correctly listed nine. Actually, thanks to a predicted threeway tie for ninth place, the NBC list included all 10 shows that made the Nielsen top 10, but one of the shows picked by NBC — its own Hazel — failed to make this select group. The first five shows placed in the order predicted by NBC. In the lower half the order did not follow NBC's script exactly. But there was a tie for ninth place, partially as predicted. It involved two shows instead of three, however, and they were not the ones NBC had predicted would come out even. Here's the top 10 as released by Nielsen: NIELSEN AVERAGE AUDIENCE (t) Rating % No. U.S. TV Homes Rank Homes (000) 1. Beverly Hillbillies (CBS) 35.2 18.570 2. Bonanza (NBC) 31.9 16 360 3. Dick Van Dyke Show (CBS) 29.6 15,180 4. Bob Hope Comedy Special (NBC) 29.0 14.880 5. Petticoat Junction (CBS) 26.7 13,700 6. Donna Reed Show (ABC) 25.5 13.080 7. Candid Camera (CBS) 24.9 12,770 8. Red Skelton Hour (CBS) 24.1 12 360 9. Dr. Kildare (NBC) 24.0 12,310 9. Andy Griffith Show (CBS) 24.0 12,310 (t) Homes reached during the average minute of the program. Rep appointments . . . ■ Kvil-am-fm Highland Park-Dallas: Spot Time Sales, New York, named national representative. ■ Wbaz Kingston, N. Y. and Wfky Frankfort, Ky.: Prestige Representation Organization, New York. ■ Wokb Winter Garden (Orlando), Fla.: Gill-Perna, New York, as national representative. ■ Wjbc Bloomington. 111.: Avery-Knodel, New York, as national representative, effective Dec. 1. 64 (BROADCAST ADVERTISING) BROADCASTING, November 18, 1963