Independent Exhibitors Film Bulletin (1954)

FINANCIE BULLETIN JANUARY II. 1954 By Philip R. Ward X^'HATS AHEAD I\ 1954? If recession comes, as almost unanimously presaged by the nation's leading economic and financial experts, the motion picture industry may hardiv know it. There are amjile signposts to indicate that the cineni i world will almost certainly run counter to the genera^ trends throughout the economy and enjoy its most lush year since the bonanza days of 1916-17. This applies to the film companies much more than to the theatre interests, in \ icw of the fact that a "seller s market" now definitely preyails in thi-~ industry. Chief reason for o|)limism is that Hollywood, unlike the balance of American business, stands retrenched, regroup'-d and refreshed for the fight ahead. This is the normal and healthy aftermath of an industry that has come to grips with old man slump for the past f\\t years, while the others sailed along with record profits. In other words, it has a long head start on the road to recoyery. like a soldier wounded early i:i battle. At long last, the trade will jiass its bitter cup of tea for others to sip. O 0 THK B1(;(;KST HKAT Hollywood will enjoy over other industries is in the field of economy measures. The prodigality once associated with film production has \anished from the scene. There will be no return of the old lime e\tra\ agance-^. despite the eye-opening array of o|)ulent films, and climbing profits. The hard learned discovery that good shows can be made as cheaply as bad ones, may ultimaleK make a rockribbed conseryatiye of Hollywood. In the meantime, as the others go through the tortured processes of cost-trimming, thr industry will breeze happily along in trim, tight condition, thoroughly schooled in the art of b()nc-dee|) c( onomies all across the board. O O THE POSSIBILITY Of LOSSES in trade through uiu mploynient among industrial \\orkers will be compensated by im|)ro\('ment in the economic fortunes of another — possibly more responsive group molivewise — the fixed income classes. This includes white collar workers largely, school teachers, government employees and security holders. This entire body represents a relatively discriminate movie audience. Producers take note. O 0 MOST ECONOMISTS foresee the ranks of unemployed swelling to four or h\e million as the decline in business volume tajces hold. Coinersely. employment will actually increase in Hollywood, as the uncertainties fraught in :>D and other te( hnological imio\ations vanish. Peak employment should develop as early as March or April, based on the ambitions roster of j)roducl earmarked for that |)eri()d. Independently financed films should also be nourishing by mid-year. addin<r to the employment rolls. A tightening in pun basing jiouer. recession s most |ier sonal sym])tom. may well work to the industry's benefit. Soft dollars traditionally find their way to luxury goods, vacations and travel. A hardening of the dollar, even to the extent of five percent, will put these items just out of the reach for nianv. Thus, interest will increase in many of the popular I'riced amusements, motion jiictures among them. Sports and the theatre may jirosper equally. Business dip is not expected to be so sharp as to closet the public in its home to be entertained solely by T\ . O 0 A ERANK \ lEW on lowering, let alone repeal, of the 20 percent Eederal .\musement Tax. must be pessimistic. Despite much talk. Administration promises, and heavy pressure by industry groups. Vt hite House braintrusters will tell Congress to observe the currently high grosses rung uji in fir.-<t and second run situations as proof that the industry does not need relief any more than. say. the fur business. If a cut is to be won. it will be accom|)lished only by the same kind of thorough grass-roots fight that was made by movie interesis last year — and w ith no loophole left unplugged. O O THIS IS THE SEASON of surveys and post-morleni;. on the linaiicial |)ages. and all of them record the whopping increments in the state of film securities. Dow -Jones results showindustrial stocks off 11 percent from close of 1952. but movie i-sues rose over 2 percent. About two-thirds of all busine-^s categories finished lower this year. Standard and Poor shows amusem.ent stocks as placing 19th among over 100 share ( lassifications. 0 o THE CHAlxT BELOW indicates the percentage of net gain and loss of securities among 10 imjiortant motion jticture companies. No report was made of results in W arner Bros.. Inc.. Stanley Warner or Paramount Theatres owing to their new capitalization in \95^ : ADVANCES LOSSES Allied Artists 91% Columbia 66% I,„eus 2% Paramount T'r \ational Theaters ...72% RKO Pictures 27'/c IIKO Theaters „ 36% lleiiuhlic 17% 20th Cent. Fo.x _ 58% I nirersal 34% INDUSTRY STOCK RISE .30.8% Although Loews shows little change over 1952. trading volume began quickening at year's end and continues with narrow, but nonetheless impressive gains. Market reaction is ill harmony w ith opening of company's first CineniaScope film. "'Knights of the Round Table." Early returns from first runs in \^ cities .*how this feature running 12 percent over Loew>' last super-grosser. "Quo Vadis ". Imi)royed j)roduct w ill mark this issue as one to watch. FILM BULLETIN January II 1954 Page 11