Independent Exhibitors Film Bulletin (1956)

LET'S FACE IT — this is not the year for movie stocks. Not as an industry-wide investment, that is. Now don't get us wrong; things can change. Summer grosses may rise to Olympian levels and profits may soar. But this will take some doing. As is, the industry anticipates a good sunny season, possibly better than good, and yet there exists a noticable void of market optimism. Instead, investment opinion seems to concern itself mostly with special cinematic situations, leaving industrywide enthusiasm for some future year. And this state of mind seems to be borne out in fact. For so far into 1956 movie shares are just not percolating as a team. By way of illustration, let's review the trend of film company stock prices as recorded by the Film BULLETIN Cinema Aggregate from the beginning of the year : Close, 1955 158^ January 141^2 February 155^4 March 151^ April 154^ Correspondingly effete has run the pattern of theatre company shares in the Aggregate : Close, 1955 37 January February 35 March 3Sys April 34^£ This is how those figures appear on our chart: Film BULLETIN Cinema Aggregate* FILM COMPANIES THEATRE COMPANIES * Composed of carefully selected representative industry issues. Perhaps the tipoff is manifest in the record of ups and downs of individual stocks over the past few months. Glancing at the closing prices of nine important film makers, we find in January that 8 companies suffered "downs" and one company enjoyed an "up". In February, six companies made "ups", while 3 made "downs", for the best showing of the year. In March all 9 companies recorded "downs". In April, 5 had "downs", 4 had "ups". In brief, film shares can't seem to pull their oars in unison. Of course, these statistics are merely symptoms — effects rather than causes — of the current economic posture of the industry. And that posture is, at the moment, more than a FINANCIAL BULLETIN MAY 14, 1954 By Philip R. Ward little stooped at the shoulders. As an important theatre chain executive said last week: "It's not that conditions aren't improving. They're improving too mechanically. There's no real zip to the business." That put the finger on it. This industry thrives on the incandescent. 0 THIS IS THE YEAR OF THE SPECIAL SITUATION, what with stock schemes, promotional horseplay and back I log deals running rampant. As such, there is no shortage of attractive individual speculations. Here is a nutshell rundown of some of the choicest opportunities of the moment from Wall Street's viewpoint, together with the pivotal factors that may give them their kick: PARAMOUNT— Holding a barrel full of coin and fresh from a solid annual statement, this company is without gimmicks (unless you put much stock in its International Telemeter holdings), but looks like it knows its way around black ink. "Ten Commandments" alone makes it a situation to be reckoned with. This might be the greatest grosser in movie history. 20th CENTURY-FOX— Usually in the vanguard of industry recoveries — and one is due. Reason : strong on showmanship and technical and production innovations. A "guts" concern. CinemaScope product is improving after disappointing start. In addition to the film library potential, 20th has oil and gas in the ground under its studio property. WARNER BROTHERS— With Si Fabian, theatrewise veteran in the saddle, and Serge Semenenko financing, this company looks highly volatile. One imponderable: the $21 million sale of old backlog product may fall through if a capital gains ruling is not forthcoming. Of all the situations cited, a correct guess by the investor on Warners could produce the greatest profit. COLUMBIA — While there has been little activity of note in this company's shares during the past few months, the prospects of substantially improved earnings from here on in should encourage investors to start buying. "Picnic" undoubtedly will roll up one of the biggest grosses of the year, and other good-looking product is on tap. ALLIED ARTISTS— A do-nothing of late on the American Exchange, but literally loaded with grossing potential thanks to a three year old decision to ease gently, but unretreatingly, into big time production. First of this outfit's big films, by ace director William Wyler, and with ace star Gary Cooper, will soon go into release. LOEWS — Coming off the floor, earnings-wise. Management intent on making a big showing in wake of highly critical stockholder comments. Valuable film library give stock an additional leverage factor. P*qt 6 Film BULLETIN May 14, 1954