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8 HARVARD BUSINESS REPORTS
have been quite able to protect themselves in the main. The question is far from being settled, however, and the keenest of ability will have to be exercised in solving it.
The exhibition phase of motion pictures is, of course, the one which most closely touches the public. Here, again, a strong trend toward integration has been evident. Theater acquisition on the part of producer-distributors followed from a desire for a wider distribution and a more profitable outlet and from a belief in the need for more thorough exploitation of new pictures. These controlled outlets give some assurance of exhibition upon which the producer-distributor can rely for a substantial return upon the money he has invested in films.
This integration has raised distinct questions common to all chain store development, of which the problems of centralization of management and of the future of the independent operator are but illustrations. Protection of the interests of unaffiliated exhibitors has given rise to the Allied States Association, whose future policy is to be watched with the keenest of interest. The future of the compulsory arbitration policy, now declared illegal, as a means of settling disputes between exhibitors and distributors, is another question on which the answer is yet to be determined.
It is clear that quite aside from the question of public relations the industry faces today a multitude of questions of first-rate importance. Some of these are legal in nature, some are largely technical in character, some relate to problems of organization and finance, while still others are more specifically problems of distribution and exhibition.
It may not be out of place to call attention briefly to some of these problems in a more specific manner. Consideration has already been directed to the need for a careful, scientific market analysis. There has been too much of general assumption, tested only by trial and error. One meets constantly with the dogmatic assertion, for instance, that the picture that does well on Broadway goes well elsewhere, in spite of repeated experiences to the contrary. Even in the same market, box office prophets frequently are sadly in error. For instance, Variety under date of April 15, 1930, reported concerning Chicago, in its usual picturesque language, " Futility of picture critics brutally demonstrated last week. What the guessers told the public to see flopped, v.v." There is a close parallel between this problem of forecasting