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INTRODUCTION 9
the success of a picture and forecasting the style demands for merchandise, such as fabrics, furniture, or silverware. Book publishing firms have a similar problem.2 Obviously, the similarity cannot be pressed too far, since there are essential differences in the types of product. During the past few years, however, there have appeared in the United States several companies whose business it is to advise both large and small retailers regarding style trends and to forecast the colors, designs, etc., that are likely to prove popular. For years it was said that this could not be done. Yet today it is done with some success, and it is probable that still greater success will come with time and experience. It would be strange indeed if every other industry could profit by market analysis and careful adjustment of products to various segments of a known market, and if only the motion picture industry had nothing to learn from such efforts.
Suggestions of this sort for motion pictures are usually scouted as academic. One is tempted at times to reply that it might be well at least to give more serious thought to the issue unhampered by the unreasoning prejudice of many of those whose experience and outlook have been confined to Hollywood and Times Square. It is generally conceded that the industry was in the doldrums from lack of originality when sound, like an artificial stimulant, came to save the situation temporarily. The keen critics within the industry agree that the small middle western market demands a different type of picture from the big metropolitan market. How far has analysis gone to demonstrate that distinct pictures could not be made for this market when it is claimed that 10% of the industry's film income is derived from Times Square? Is not one answer to censorship and boards of endorsers to offer the groups what they desire instead of creating more or less self appointed judges as to what patrons should be allowed to see?
The fact that income figures for the motion picture industry have been steadily rising for some time is likely to be distinctly misleading. Such figures may rise for a variety of reasons. The novelty of sound and of color has attracted many patrons. The substantial acquisition of theaters by producer-distributors has obviously swelled their income. Direct to consumer advertising, both in newspapers and over the radio, has gone far toward
2 See "Distributing Motion Pictures, " Harvard Business Review, April, 1929, pp. 267-279, especially pp. 274-275.