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"That Certain Uncertainty" by John Y. Burgess, Jr. Manager, Single Records Department, RCA Victor Record Division T JL he popular single record industry is a many- splendored headache. It's a feast or famine business with no slide-rule measurements or charted courses to guide by. There is no sure way to predict trends and changes in taste and it is still a mystery why one record sells and the next one doesn't. The industry's challenging fascination lies in this unpredictability. The necessity to create, promote, pre- sent and sell a new and different product constantly is a phenomenon seldom encountered in any other business. The mechanics of recording, packaging, shipping, adver- tising, merchandising, promoting and publicizing a single unit require a long chain of specially trained per- sonnel and, most important, an intangible factor called timing. All efforts are of little use if the timing is off on a given unit. This single intangible is the key to the success or failure of many things, and it is perhaps an over-simpli- fication to say that timing in the debut of a record is the most important factor, because if one of the other factors involved is lacking or mis-managed or inadequate, the entire effort can be ruined. But, in contrast to this uncertainty in timing, there is quite a strong measure of control over the actual production and distribution of a record; quite a bit of predictability over the pack- aging, shipping, advertising, promoting and publicizing of the product involved. Kay Starr at session with Hugo Winter- halter, Musical Director, RCA Victor Records. Problems, Guesses, Doubts . . . If the only problem were to keep supplying the public with a specific formula at a specific time, our business would be as solidified and as predictable as necessity products. Obviously, there are other things involved which create the problems, guesses, doubts, surprises, triumphs and failures. Motivational research still has a long way to go in the exploration of why certain groups of the buying public buy certain things. It was found that teenagers are the biggest buyers of the single record and that girl record buyers outnumbered boys by a wide margin. There have been a great many surveys made which were designed to explore the impulses of teenage spenders and the reasons why they buy what they do with their allowances or earned dollars. Since World War II there have been more teenage dollars spent than ever before. Part of this is the increase in population, and a very important contributing factor has been that teenagers are taking more part-time jobs. The post-war bonanza known as baby-sitting has been a teenage windfall. With more money to spend, the youngsters have gone in for luxury items that they were previously unable to afford. One of these is records. Young people have always struggled to be independ- ent of the tastes and choices of their parents, and with added financial independence they have had an oppor- tunity to create their own musical heroes and heroines, and demand the kind of music they want to hear. Rock 'n' roll has been one of their choices, and in the past two years they wanted little else. Youngsters want the single hit of the moment. Their 26 ELECTRONIC AGE