Sponsor (Oct-Dec 1963)

TOTAL BROADCASTING +21.8% +22% nUh tax reduction TV +16.2% Radio +5% 1963 Actual 1964 Forecast 1964 national advertising. For the radio industry, as a whole, national spot advertising is expected to rise by about 4% during 1964. Likewise, network radio affiliates should anticipate a modest expansion in "network income." Local radio, as a whole and by areas and cities, will unquestionably reflect the percentage 1964 gains in retail sales for the nation and for the respective areas and cities. A 5% to 5.5% anticipated growth in 1964 retail sales should set tlie radio industry's overall local advertising pace. Television: Combined local and national (network and spot) tv advertising should advance by about 9.5% during 1964 if GNP rises to $614 billion to $616 billion. Within this overall pattern, national tv is expected to expand by about 9% while local tv advertising goes up by 10% to 11%. These changes can be expected to raise tv's 1964 acKertising volume to approximately $2,300,000,000 and this figure should be 17.0% of the nation s all media advertising pic of $1.3,6(H),(KK),()()(). During 196.3, tv network and national spot developed considerably more vigor than we, or most per.sons, had anticipatetl at the start of the year. National tv spot was especially strong in 1963. However, we shall operate from a higher mathematical dollar base, during 1964, and it doesn't appear likely that tv network and national spot will again rise by netirly the 11% which prevailed during 1963. The predicted 9% gain in national spot and network will undoubtedly outstrip advances made by any other segment of the nation's advertising industry. Percentage-wise, we shall not be surprised if local tv advertising rises by about 10%-11%. To achieve this 10%-11% increase, local tv advertising expenditures need to expand by only about $40 million — naturally, we refer to sponsors outlays for time, talent, film, etc. not to local tv station revenue. We belie\'e that this growth in local tv ad\'ertising is fully due and will eventuate during the next 12 months. The imponderable and unpredicable factor in the 1964 growth of both radio and tv advertising is governmental regulation. During 1963. broadcasting generally operated under a more favorable K(X: climate than in 1961 and 1962. We believe that this situation was partially responsible for the extra strength in tv network and national spot advertising. The adop tion of prescribed FCC commercii rules or the ( unlikely ) regulation ( t program standards would undoub ly raise questions among nation; advertisers and, thereby, slow dew the 1964 rate of expansion in ra^ and t\" advertising. Sponsor coi| fusion over exact FCC commercij regulations covering FCC comme cial regulations which, by tlieir n:' ture, resulted in a reduction of :i much as 10% in the number tj commercials, during prime Class B time, would undoubted cause a first year decline of as nnu as $250 million in broadcast ad\( tising. Our personal opinion is that tl FCC Commissioners, with one two possible exceptions, are ful aware of their responsibility and o ligation to preserve profitab broadcasting as the necessar\", < sential basis for effective radio ai tv stations and network. General Business Outlook: Economic cycles breed and gt erate cumulative expansions a contractions within the prevaili composite business structure. S dom, if e\er, do we find all c<. nomic indicators moving in t same direction at the same time. As we emerge into 1964, there . substantially more uptrend indii tors tlnm adverse trend indicat( 26 SPONSOR/30 DECEMBER \9