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AS VIEWED BY OUR WASHINGTON NEWS BUREAU
November 27, 196li
Spring fashions for 1965 are already in forecast in the nation's stores —and 1965 economic forecasts are now in full swing in the crystal-ball set.
While the President and his economic advisers have been making predictions of continued "strong and steady forward momentum" since last January, -Dther predictors see a slightly milder but still healthy momentum for 1965^ md a possible leveling off somewhat in I966.
A strong school of thought has built up around the theory of retiring presidential economic adviser Walter W. Heller; That the nearly four years of unprecedented peacetime expansion owes much to alert federal fiscal pioves. Heller believes that government policy has had., and will continue to have, a large hand in safeguarding econom7 from the type of down-spiral that sucked the American economy into its historic "depressions."
During the recent Michigan Annual Conference on the Economic Outlook, Julius Shiskin, census bureau economist who specializes in business cycle jevelopments, says the new non-hostile, government-industry cooperation may lave found the key to maintained economic stability in this country.
There are plenty who disagree. But proponents point to the fact that tax cuts, liberalized depreciation and credit to business, buoyed a thirdi^uarter Gross National Product to $628 billion, nearly seven percent above 1963, and disposable personal income at the rate of $U35 billion, in 19614..
Il In prospect are excise tax cuts, possible further cuts in income and corporate taxes in I966 or I967, and the revolutionary possibility that federal funds of up to $U billion may be turned back to state and local
■ governments when the national treasury situation warrants it.
Even the less optimistic — including national chamber of commerce spokesman Walter F. Carey — sees strongest carry-forward factors as the two most heavily fueled by advertising: the "explosion in the variety of material goods, and growth of service industries."
Agriculture Department's 196U outlook conference held here recently got right down to particulars on predicted large consumer spending and the new products in store.
I
Among the predictions ; color tv and "tinyvision" tv look like big
growth items in 196^. Color tv may gain as much as ^^ percent over this
'year's sales, and within two years, color sets are expected to have square
tubes in 19-inch, 23-inch and 25-inch sizes.
A Labor Department speaker reporting on this aspect, mentioned but did not take sides with the Federal Trade Commission's current quarrel over traditional overall diagonal tube measurement.
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