Sponsor (Jan-June 1953)

These I methods of projeolittg radio ratings were among those used with It Hit No. 2 The methods shown below fur projecting ratings beyond home count) to entire coverage area of a station have serious disadvantages. Yet they have been used by timebuyers in lieu of an) other better method. Timebuyers understand that an) projection of a rating measured in the home area to counties outside is not good use of research. Yet the) feel they must have some means of getting a cost-per-1,000 based on inside and outside listening to use as one factor in comparing stations. Material for the descriptions of the four formulae below was compiled by Dan Denenholz, research and promotion director of The Katz Agency. Several top timebuyers, researchers agreed the facts constituted an accurate summary of the four projection methods. 1. 50% formula: ('.aunties with less thun 50% of homes listening once or more weekly, according to coverage service, are dropped out oj consideration. Total number at radio homes in rest oj counties is used as base against which rating, usually measured in home county only, is projected to get total listeners in station's coverage area. DISADVANTAGES: I. 50% cut-off point is arbitrary. Why not \v\r'( or r>2r'( ? Theory, by no means scientific, is that by using all homes in 50$ or more counties you balance omission of under 50$ ' ounties from the calculations. 2. Stations deliver effective circulation beyond 50% area. For example, a "20$ county" which has 50.000 homes means more circulation than 80% of a 10,000-home county. 3. A county in which station has 50% penetration gets as much weight as the one in which the station has 100% penetration. I. \(.S' i luster method makes it even more difficult to determine the true .">()' "', area. Suppose there's cluster of four counties which Nielsen gives W/t penetration. Two of the four counties might well be oier 50$ murk but can't be included in true 50% area 2. Half of home county: f£7„inS12 coverage percentage which is at least half that of home county. Total number of radio homes in these counties is then used as base for projecting ratings. Method is similar to one at left. DISADVANTAGES: I. Method has many weaknesses of 50% formula. It is equally arbitrary and unscientific. 2. It penalizes the stronger stations. For example, suppose Station A has 90% NCS in the home county and Station B has 60%. Also suppose that in one outside county NCS shows 44% of the families reported listening to Station A. This comes out less than half the home county figure and accordingly that county would be dropped out of consideration for Station A. Suppose that on the other hand NCS reports 30% listening to Station B in that same county. This is just half of Station B's home county figure of 60%. The county would therefore be credited to Station B but not to Station A, even though A has about one-half more NCS listeners in the county {that is 44% of radio homes listening as compared with 30% of radio homes). 3. Plateau system: Pattern of listening percentages in counties is examined to determine point where they seem to drop of] sharply. Those conntics whose parentages show sharp drop from stronger counties are omitted from consideration. All other figures, no matter what the percentage of listening, are counted. DISADVANTAGES: I. This method combines weaknesses of the two preceding formulae. It requires some arbitrary subjective judgments on just where the cut-off point should be. In other wants, two different buyers might get two different answers. 2. This method does not take into account a station's full circulation. Dropped out are ((unities which may have more listeners, because their papulation is larger, than counties which are included. .'J. \( S (luster method will affect accuracy of this method adversely as explained under 50% formula above. Some oj clusters which are dropped out will include counties which really belong in. I. Met hail will tend to penalize stronger station: Cut-off point for strong station ma\ he higher percentage than that for weaker one. 4Tffttil! HllHioflPA" Base for projection of rating to . IUU1B C9UU1CIIVC. the coverage area 0f statbn is total number of homes {listening weekly) credited to the station in all its counties by the NCS or SAM coverage reports. DISADVANTAGES: I. This method severely shortchanges the station and radio. For example, suppose a station has 100,000 total radio homes in its home county and it has a SAM weekly daytime audience of 50% (or 50,000 homes). Also suppose a daytime program on the station comes up with a rating of 5.0. By definition a rating is a percentage of all radio homes in the measured area. Thus the 5.0 rating in this county means 5% of 100,000 homes or 5,000 homes. But if you make the SAM audience figure your base for projection you must take 5% of 50,000 homes, giving you only 2,500 homes. Obviously this figure is wrong for the home county so it will be wrong for the outside counties as well. 2. Another way oj looking at error contained in this method: It's like saying that among those 50.000 SAM listeners, only 5% were listening to program. Actually 10% must have been listening. This new method mag he proposed hg SR/\ to eliminate some of faults of others New SRA method: A committee of the Station Representatives Association was considering recommendation of a projection method to the industry at SPONSOR'S presstime. Method grows out oj total audience approach. i \" I above). It attempts to "correct ratings so that they can be projected to a station's entire (overage area with less shortr hanging of radio. For full explanation of this method, see text of article at right, ii hat SRA hopes to do is get timeljuyers, if they feel they must use a formula, to use its approach in lieu of the foul above. SRt /eels its technique, while still tar tram perfect, is nunc realistic and lair than the other methods. Independently of SR I. the Marschalh and Pratt agency has nunc up with the same approach and is now working with it. Another agent \, Wesley As satiates, has ahead) used a similar method in buying time far a Shulton early-morning campaign {Old Spur). There may be other agencies using the correction method as well. Ill concerned agree that the method has disadvantages still but that these seem less serious than laid Is of the 50% formula and others. Mam agencies are just now in the process of deciding how to use SAM or NCS data in projecting ratings and most of those contacted by SPONSOR said they were extremely interested in seeing how ivell the SRA approach worked out in practice. It's likely, therefore, that the technique will get close study over next few weeks. DISADVANTAGES: 1. This method shortchanges farm stations in that it assumes intensity of listening will be the same outside the home area as inside. The farm audience, of course, being outside the rated area is not reflected in most ratings. Other Stalions which have stronger listening intensity outside their home counties than inside are also shortchanged but not to the same degree as in the oldei projection methods. 2. Method still has same fault of older methods. It projects a linn projectable rating. But there's no nay to avoid so doing until projet table ratings are made available. 36 SPONSOR