Sponsor (July-Dec 1953)

problems. I he situation i furthei complicated 1 > \ the fad thai ei ei j ad* vertiser's problem is different. Bui there is one kind oi information ih.it c\ ei \ bodj wants to know ; the 'I' of set penetration in .1 new I V mai ket, including Mil'' < om ersion, plus the extent in which nearb) l\ stations d\ ei lap. I In |n cililcm ill c>\ i'i lap is .1 greatei one than It used to be as new l\ Btations begin filling in holes in the broadcasl landscape. ( mce thi1 facts on sel penel 1 bI ion and overlap are gotten, an advertiser can compare degree ol penetration with his sales figures. Mien he tnusl End ways of estimating future l\ set growth. Some advertisers are by-passing formulas and adding new stations as the) come <ni in establish time franchises. Maxwell House is an example of this with iis avid purchase <>f almosl an) T\ station. Another important criterion is cost per-1,000. In new market-. cn-l-per 1,000 starts out higher than in established markets and Mime advertisers have been waiting until audiences oi COSts reach a predetermined level before the) bu) a new market. If the n< w market i a one-station market, the j<\vertiser with a strict formula takes a chance, <>l emir e, that a competitor will lie up the time segment he wants for an indefinite period in the future. In estimating what new market will cost him, advertisers should take into account that adding new stations involves some indirect savings. The new market ma\ put him in a higher discount bracket, for one thing. For another, the) involve no new production co-Is. Or, to put it another way, his talent and production co-is per market go dow n. In planning for the future, network advertisers must look at more than just current set penetration. Not onl) must the) consider the estimated rate ol growth, but they must take into account market potential. If an advertiser must choose between one of two stations, the market with 20,000 -eland a potential of 100,000 ma) be a better bu) than a market with 30,000 sets and a potential of 60,000, other things being equal. i.See Spot T\ tion, starting page I'M. for other discussion ol when it is mosl advantageous to bu\ into a new I\ market. 1 Q. How can an advertiser estimate the rate of future TV set growth in a new market? A. I he ln-i thiiiL' to find oul 1 w hat pasl 1 owth has been and thai 1-1 I eas) a it sounds, Nobody, obviousl) has been out 1 ounting I \ -it one b) one -oi .1I1. 1950 < ensus and a lot ol Bets have been I ought sin< e then. Nielsen Covers Service < one up h ith figures projei ted from a sample in \ 1 1 1 1 1952, hut thai was befi 1 new Btations 1 ame on the air. \ in" kel pie e, prepared b) the < BS l'\ Research Department, has used the census and \ ielsen data to proje 1 I \ Bel nw nership b) 1 ounties as oi Mi 1953. ■ NB< ma) 1 ome oul an) da) now with a similai stud) based on N ielsen and adjusted to reflo 1 sel Bales -hi. e \|n d 1952 .1 reported b) 1 1mRadio1 ele\ ision Manilla, hirers \ ciation. 1 The ( BS ( ount) figures based on the census and Nielsen data were used onl) foi pre-freeze 1 ounties bul oul oi these figures plus some othei I I BS researi hers 1 ame up w ith tgh answei s f oi I \ sel penetration in new video markets. Here is what 1 BS did: I 1. 1 counties served b) pre-freeze stations, ' in ves wen 1 hai ted based on three points: the <\<ii< the station went mi the air. the census and the \' S daia. In 1 ases where \( S figures were applied to 1 minis 1 lusters, < BS applied the sel penel ration figure for the cluster to each count) . CBS 1 ould have used the actual sel penetration fi for each count) but fell thai the individual count) sample was too small. Typical growth curves were drawn based on these three points. Rathei than la! oriousl) draw ii s curve Ini e.e h count) . CBS < 1 1 \ ided them into five gri ording to the date telecasting began. The five groups were 1 1 1 helm.' |anuar\. 1948, first six months of 1" 18, '• I last six months of 1948, 1 • 1949, [our months of 1 * > ". « ► . I hese were furthei di\ ide 1 into four nr five levels of curves, making a total of 23 1 urves. \\ ith these 2 I • urves, 1 BS »le t" determine a I mints ' average I lt( growth between M.r 1952 and the -ame month "I I1 \\ hen ii came tn post-freeze • ..untie-. the problem was a litlle different. Without reference points, CBS had to be theoretical aboul it. Resea amined the five groups ■ -. ribed above and found that the later television • omes to a county, the I people bu) sets. Researchers .d amined the experience ol Denvei and I'm tland, wh< the ail first and when • penetration < ould be studied. I 'lilt in • ih. to gcthcr, ml tion starts "If with 2'i penetration • BS charted one 12-month curve foi sel 1 1 in all ■ deciding what counties to appl) thin 1 I 11 ed it • d< partmenl • ontours on signal and del ided. .11 hilrai lis . thai H | these 1 ontours in< luded more than I the 1 mints population, thai dered sei ved \<\ le\e\ isioi I elusions drawn from the < BS data ap pen mi. In nexl question. ■ Mans estin have been based on NBC's monthl) iin oi I \ set ow nership bs markets I In NBC figures are themselves 1 mi K I M \ data which show shipment* b\ manufai turers NBl fi tiret I .nil ul ii Is s aluable in (hat w ill, monthl) referem i E wth • h.ni i fait Is eas) to projei i. However, -ii ce I Vpril M!( ! has tinned it iimiithls figures imw given oul quarterl) not make estimates for not NB( markets Q. What has been found out about actual set growth in new TV markets? A. I he CBS pi ownership b) counties shows thai w here a | mints fur the fust time iftei Vpril 1952 tin sel growth vsill be approximate! |n||nS\-: Vftei one month <<i I \ sen i e, -t penetration is aboul fta tw< ths, aboul 8.5' : after three months, aboul IV, ; after four months, about 22 ibout -i\ iin. nth-, about '■ after seven months, aboul eight months months, aboul I' nths, after lie iboill 54 ' : if tei The I show a much more rapid growth than SOUK mal ' whi< h that newer T\ mark. than older • ii . , -• imate found that average set growth in . I \ ■ arkets went fxoi alter the first \rar to 62 after fi\e liile the new markets showed i fieun turation after 13 JULY 1953 177