Television digest with AM-FM reports (Jan 1951-Jan 1952)

'BEDROCK NOW-NO PLACE TO GO BUT UP': Still loaded with factory TV inventories that may be nearly as large as total in trade pipelines (see figures below), most TVradio manufacturers resume post-vacation production determined to err this time on side of conservatism. They plan no great surge of output — however confident some are about fall-winter market, for which they normally begin producing about now. So it will be surprising, indeed, if second half 1951 production comes any where near first half's 5,500,000-odd TVs, 8,000,000-odd radios (Vol. 7:27). Third quarter, with July-August vacation shutdowns running 2-4 weeks (Vol. 7:25-26), seems certain to fall off to negligible total compared to first quarter's 2,200,000 and second quarter's 1,110,000. Thereafter, it's anybody's guess. [Note : It's interesting fact that first half 1951 TV units are very few more than automotive industry's 3,103,111 passenger car production in same period.] Where do we go from current small-scale output — for it's no secret that all factories have post-vacation schedules in low gear? RTMA president Glen McDaniel told NAMM convention in Chicago this week: "I do not believe I am being unduly rash when I say that business will improve this fall and winter. To begin with, we are at bedrock now and there's no place to go but up. Second, the fall and early winter are normally the best sales months for our industry. Third, the quickness with which set manufacturers cut back their production in the second quarter has had its effect in lowering retail inventories and putting an end to threats of dumping. "Many of you will recall the somewhat alarming condition that arose in May when a public auction was announced in New York for the purpose of unloading |5 million worth of TV sets and similar auctions were started in other cities. The extended credit condition of many dealers throughout the country was a cause of very grave concern to us when the auction movement started. Balance quickly restored itself, however, and dumping operations decreased. "I believe that the action of the manufacturers in sharply curtailing production was instrumental in avoiding financial catastrophe for many dealers. Dealer inventories are now generally being reduced, and a return to normal dealer buying can be expected by late summer or early fall." McDaniel held out hope for relaxation of Regulation W, approved by House a few days later (see p. 1). As to outlook for raw materials, he said: "It noYJ appears that, despite growing limitations on civilian uses of these materials, the industry will be able to manufacture as many TV and radio sets as the market will absorb before end of the year unless more severe shortages develop. This is due in part to progress the industry has made in its materials conservation efforts. . .achieved without any sacrifice of quality in the equipment or parts." * * 4= * Dun & Bradstreet report on dealer inventories should be out in week or so, giving first authentic figures on extent of pileup. Meanwhile, with RTMA releasing ever-mounting factory inventory figure each week, popular trade guessing game — and source of lots of whispers — is v/ho has most of the sets? Only frank admission that it was warehousing considerable numbers came from General Electric, which turned out somewhat over 300,000 sets first 6 months of this year, resumed production July 16 at rate of 75,000 per quarter — in other words, plans to turn out half as many second half 1951 as it did first half. It doesn't tell how many TVs it has in warehouses, but GE's TV sales chief David Davis said in Chicago this week: "We believe that the present excess inventory position of the industry will reverse itself into a definite shortage position before the end of the year. We 11