Television digest and FM reports (Jan-Dec 1948)

aally 5169.50) uith Apex Al^-phono console (normally 560). In Chicago, Logan's made similar offer, didn't identify sets but claimed |269.90 price was 570 less than combination of two non-brand sets. ..Then there's report about Chicago used-car dealer. I Cook County Distributors, giving away 5169.50 TV set with every car sale of 5500 up. MORE PREDICTIONS & CALCULATIONS: RCA Victor's Frank Folsom goes along with RMA president Max Balcom's forecast that 2,000,000 TV receivers will be produced during 1949 (Vol. 4:46), thus upping his own previous estimate of 1,600,000 (Vol. 4:38). Indeed, from other industry sources, we now hear that 2,000,000 is probably a conservative figure, for fast-spiraling monthly production is already said to be passjing 100,000 mark. RCA press release about Folsom's enthusiastic remarks about TV in scheduled Dec. 4 speech before Boston's Clover Club (all VIPs) had him reiterating original 1,600,000 estimate. But he said he'd use 2,000,000 figure when time came to deliver talk. Among his other observations: "Television is one of the greatest beehives of activity in American industry ...rapidly establishing itself as one of the economic bulwarks of the nation... two years ahead of the most optimistic forecasts .. .physically impossible for radio industry to produce enough TV receivers to meet the current demand. .. should add 58 billion a year to the national economy 5 years hence [which] would place the radioTV industry among the 10 largest in the U.S....will [by 1953] be turning out 4,800,OOO sets a year so by time of [next] presidential inauguration we may expect 17,000,000 TV receiving sets [with] a potential audience of 50 to 60 million persons." Accepting the 2,000,000 calculation and our projections to a billion-dollar retail trade in TV and accessories in 1949 (Vol. 4:47-48), it's interesting to note that big RCA is now capitalizing nicely on the 550,000,000 Folsom reported it has sunk into development of TV. Aside from being one of the Big Two receiver producers and marketers and leading' supplier of transmitters, tubes, etc. (highly profitable), aside from operating 4 (soon 5) stations and the top TV network (loss, about 53.500,000 this year), RCA stands to gain other big revenues from TV's fabulous upsurge. It collects a patent royalty on nearly every set made (only notable exceptions being DuMont and Zenith). Rate is 2)4% of manufacturers' sales price of complete receiver, less excise and tubes, or about 1.9% net. Leaving out its own probable 500,000 production, RCA should collect nearly 57,000,000 in patent rolayties on rest of industry's probable 1,500,000 TV set output next year. WHAT ZENITH IS SAYING AND DOING: Only big league radio manufacturer v;e know who categorically states TV isn't affecting regular radio set sales, is Zenith's president Gene McDonald, perpetual individualist. In report to stockholders this week, he states: "Sales of regular radio receivers, including phonograph combinations, continue at a very satisfactory rate and it is not expected they will be affected, to any great extent, by the introduction of TV. Demands from automobile manufacturers for the company's auto radio [Zenith is a leader in field] far exceed. .. present facilities..." Its farm as well as auto radio business probably accounts for Zenith's failure to feel same impact of TV that most other radio set makers admit. A top radio maker (probably ranking a good third). Zenith is regarded almost certain to become one of first dozen TV makers, though late in starting (Vol. 4:47) and though unable to get picture tubes from prime supplier RCA due to patent litigation. Probable merchandising angle of its "Porthole" (round frame) TV receivers now offered in Chicago market, soon elsewhere, is indicated in this paragraph of report: "To prevent obsolescence. Zenith has incorporated in all of its TV receivers an advanced type of Turret Tuner, which is capable of receiving not only the frequencies presently allotted to TV but can also receive the ultra-high frequencies which the ^FCC will undoubtedly make available ... The management has consistently maintained ■that it would not market TV receivers until owners could be protected against premature obsolescence, and \intil a method had been developed to provide satisfactory programs. . .Turret Tuner [and] Phonevision development provide satisfactory answers." Company doesn't divulge gross sales, but estimates net profit for 6 months ; ended Oct. 31 at 5984,535 (vs. 51,221,017 for same 1947 period) and at 5879,566 for '3 months ended Oct. 31 (vs. $844,273). Six-month decline is attributed to normal ; summertime lull, 2-week vacation shutdown, increased labor costs.