Television digest and FM reports (Jan-Dec 1948)

mount v.p. Paul Raibourn indicated his company would take $10,000,000 (about $16 per share) for the stock it bought for $164,000 in 1938-43 (Vol. 4:20). It once rejected $6,000,000 from Dr. DuMont's controlling group, which never has permitted Paramount much voice in management. Stock currently sells over-the-counter around $15. Commission's report finds unquestioned control. Though nothing is said about 100% Paramount-owned Gulf Theatres, applicant for Tampa, or 50%-owned Tri-States , Des Moines, these will be dismissed if decision is finalized. Technically, it's a "proposed decision" but, even though Paramount attorneys indicate they'll file exceptions and insist on oral arguments. Commission seems to have made up its mind, probably won't be budged as long as combination exists. Comr. Jones, dissenting in part, didn't think Commission ought to deny applications immediately, felt companies should be given time to "disaffiliate." APPRAISING 'THE PATTERN OF TV': While trade observers either go completely overboard about TV's prospects (we're often guilty, ourselves), or else whistle in the dark and echo the wishful thinking of the broadcasting tycoons (most admit, privately, they wish TV had never happened), a sane and sensible appraisal of "the pattern of TV" is noted in the Dec. 6 Advertising Age. Commenting on the statement of AvcoCrosley's James D. Shouse ("TV stands a good chance not of supplementing broadcasting as we know it today, but of replacing it"). Advertising Age remarks; "Most statements — at least those issued for public constunption — have cheerfully, if somewhat illogically, depicted radio and TV as complementary services, with TV growing enormously important 'w'ithout replacing any existing media.' We believe that Mr. Shouse is essentially correct. We believe that in the predictable future, radio as we know it will be largely supplanted by video. But we believe, also, that this switch-over will not come immediately, nor w'ill it ever be complete . "This year and next, and almost certainly for several years to come, radio will continue to be the only true 'mass medium' in the audible field. The mathematics of the situation prove this; There are at present less than 1,000,000 video sets in use; there are some 67,000,000 radio sets in use [BMB says 74,000,000]. Even with all-out video set production, these proportions cannot change drastically in less than 5 years, and perhaps 10 is a more realistic figure... "For the advertisers, the broadcaster, the movie producer and exhibitor, the big problem from now on is a matter of timing. How long can one wait without being frozen out, and how soon can one plunge without drowning financially in an exceptionally high cost field where profits are still probably years away?" CONTEA'IPORARY CULLINGS Signs of the times: Full page CBS ad in Dec. 15 Wall Street Journal, captioned “Sure, Television’s amazing— and it’s practical, too!” And going on to read: “You’re missing the ball in Television if you don’t realize how well it’s paying off today. For example: the cost of audiences actually deli%’ered by a full-hour CBS-TV program is 77c lower than the cost of reaching people through the average full-page newspaper advertisement . . “What’s behind the CBS maneuvering?” asks Billboard, commenting on CBS raids on NBC talent, which it estimates “may yet exceed 510,000,000.” For whatever it’s worth, here’s Billboard’s reply to its own question: “. . . top-level thinking on the part of CBS execs has convinced them that the future, because of television, holds room for only two AM networks. William S. Paley, Frank Stanton and company, quite simply, want to insure CBS’s position as one of those networks, preferably the No. 1 network. In the CBS book, then, this is a fight for survival. This train of thought was confirmed this week by one of the highest Columbia execs . . .” Fortune Magazine’s Elmo Roper, in December issue, finds consensus among youth that TV offers best opportunities in industry today. Story of radio in early 20s is repeating itself in TV — cut-price selling. Chicago Journal of Commerce devotes 3-col. lead article Dec. 17 to “mystery” of 15-207 discounts “in neighborhood stores” despite manufacturers’ reports their production can’t keep pace with demand, distributors’ reports their stocks are milked dry to supply dealers for Xmas trade. Reasons given : “too many dealers”; “keen competition”; unseasoned dealers and those with limited financial resources “panicked by the dollar volume of their TV inventories”; “TV-only stores mu.st move inventories faster than those with other lines”; “carryover from old-established ill of the radio business.” TV’s newest smash hit? “Milton Berle is going to have to move over and make some room at the top of the TV ladder. For visually Mr. [Arthur] Godfrey is a wow — the freshest, most personable and most engaging comedian to be seen in years . . . Mr. Godfrey in television is it.” Thus Jack Gould, in New York Times, commenting on Talent Scouts, which started Dec. 6 on CBS-TV. His enthusiasm is shared by Herald Tribune Syndicate columnist John Crosby, who called Godfrey (Dec. 13) “Henry Aldrich with a voice like Will Rogers . . . looks like a sure fii'e winner in TV.”