Television digest and FM reports (Jan-Dec 1948)

MARTIN CODEL’s J AUTHORITATIVE NEWS SERVICE OF THE VISUAL BROADCASTING AND FREQUENCY MODULATION i ARTS AND INDUSTRY M PUBLISHED WEEKLY BY M RADIO NEWS BUREAU, 1519 CONNECTICUT AVL N.W., WASHiKSTON 6. D.C. TELEPHONE MICHIGAN 2020 • VOL. 4, NO. 52 December 25, 1948 THE INDUSTRY'S TOP-DOG LOOKS AHEAD: Year-end estimates and forecasts for 1949 by the man most responsible for the emergence of TV as one of America's great new industries, RCA-NBC chairman David Sarnof f : Demand for TV receivers and tubes will continue ahead of supply through 1949 ...Radio and TV combined already comprise a $2.5 billion a year enterprise, by 1953 should rank as one of 10 foremost industries in U.S.... Whole industry's 1949 TV set production will be about 2,000,000, stepping up in succeeding years until it reaches 5,000,000 by 1955... Total TV sets in use at end of 1955 will be nearly 18,000,000. "Sight and sound combined," Gen. Sarnof f adds, "are weaving a pattern that is more appealing to the mind than sound alone, so a gradual fusion of these 2 great services is to be expected." Note ; Though Sarnoff and his NBC-TV executives speak often of "gradual fusion", NBC-TV does much less A.M-TV simulcasting than its rivals. IFs' IN TV PRODUCTION ESTIMATES: Take them at their word, and the TV set makers might turn out far more than the commonly predicted 2,000,000 units during 1949. But — and these are Big Buts; First — and this is still an incalculable: There isn't enough tin (for solder, capacitors, resistors, tubes, chassis) to be had for unlimited expansion. Available supply must be stretched, and stretched mightily, by whole radio industry. Tin and antimony are only metals still under Government control. Government buys all tin for U.S., parcels it out to industry. There are no industry stockpiles, only working inventories. Industry isn't permitted to build backlogs and Government has only recently begun to accelerate buildup of its still small strategic stockpile. Far East has been major tin source, was recovering production at fair rate, but effect of wars there is a pessimistic imponderable. Bolivia, Nigeria, Congo are good producers, but still minor. Under Government controls which expire June 30, but are expected to be extended under dictates of strategy, industry will get as much tin during first half of 1949 as it did during same period of 1948. Of course, if President decides cold war demands more tin reserves, whole schedule could be knocked into a cocked hat. Dept, of Commerce people give numerous examples of how other industries stretched, and substituted for, tin. Whether components and radio manufacturers can do likewise, and still reach projected TV production, is anyone's guess. It's not inconceivable that they may cut aural set production more than has been expected, in order to feed TV. Right now, components suppliers are quoting 20-30 week deliveries. Experts estimate 2 lbs, of tin per TV set. 4-6 oz. per A.M or FM. If 2,000,000 TVs are produced next year, it means requirement of some 2,000 tons (out of total supply of 60-70,000 tons estimated available for allocation to all U.S. industries). RJ(tA's committee to conserve tin (Vol. 4:50) is still to be appointed. In metals field, too, outlook for copper, zinc, lead and aluminum isn't unclouded. President Truman asked for standby controls on these during last Congressional session, didn't get them. It's likely he'll ask for and get them from new Congress. Impact of such controls on TV production is also a matter for speculation. Picture tubes are a better known "But" in the TV prediction game. RMA president Max Balcom (Sylvania) warns that a stockpile of some 250,000 picture tubes is Copyrltjht 19-13 by Radio News Bixrcau