Television digest with AM-FM reports (Jan-Dec 1951)

TRADE 'CLIMATE' IS TURNING RETTER: Signs are still good, "psychological impetus" seems to be there — but we'll have to wait a few more weeks, maybe a month or so, to be able to gauge fall-winter industry trends with any feeling of assurance. Right now, you can almost feel the "lift" TV-radio trade is enjoying as result of bullish developments; excellent values of product, whether in new lines or old ; easier credit terms, not yet making deep impression on retail trade but reasonably certain to do so when people turn homeward from vacations ; higher TV powers. improving signals and widening service areas of many markets ; super-dooper new telecasting programs promised soon, and coast-to-coast network service in offing ; assured public buying power as Congress acts favorably on multi-billion dollar defense budget covering procurement to mid-1952, production into 1953. With defense effort still on upgrade, with materials shortages no mere chimera, there are those in the industry who still feel TV-radio merchandise must inevitably go into short supply by end of year or maybe a bit later. Even discounting huge inventories, discounting their impulse to "talk up" better times, there may be some basis for long-term bullishness - though certainly the present pile-up of TV receivers doesn't seem to bear them out for near future. Distributor meetings thus far have reflected bullish outlook, despite fact wholesalers are probably loaded as heavily as manufacturers. Consensus is that the dealers are slowly but surely getting rid of inventory, and are now more inclined to buy — "their frame of mind much better," to quote one executive. Puzzler to trade is effect CBS-Columbia' s upcoming color promotion campaign will have on black-&-white market, in which CBS as a telecaster as well as manufacturer now has same stake as rest (see story, page 10). * ■ :{c ^ Weekly output figures, meanwhile, tell more of same. Week ending Aug. 3, RTMA reports, saw only 51,217 TVs produced (3229 private label), up less than 500 from preceding week's 50,772 (Vol. 7:31) — and comparing with first August 1950 week's 160,000! Yet factory inventories forged ahead again, reaching new high of 768,766 compared to 761,448 week before. Radios went up to 212,946 units (92,877 private label) from 184,685 the preceding week. Factory inventories were 394,223, some 10,000 up from preceding week. Week's radios were: 120,921 home sets, 63,117 auto, 28,908 portable. 4th QUARTER UNDER GNP-FEWER SETS? NPA is preparing to allot the TV-radio industry enough steel, copper and aluminum to make about 940,000 TVs, 2,200,000 radios during fourth quarter under Controlled Materials Plan (CMP). Figures are rough estimates — NPA's — based on present mix. They compare with 2,199,669 TVs and 4,235,597 radios produced in this year's first quarter and 1,134,836 TVs & 3,792,338 radios in second quarter. The fourth quarter estimates are based on NPA's plan to dole out to TV-radio and other consumer durables manufacturers steel at rate of 65% of first-half 1950 use, copper at 54%. aluminum at 48% — compared to 70%, 60% & 50% for third quarter under Order M-47A (Vol. 7:25,31). Decision to include consumer durable goods in CMP next quarter — announced this week — came as no surprise to anyone. This had been only segment of economy operating outside govt.'s all-out materials rationing plan, and its inclusion was inevitable to keep soaring military production from squeezing out civilian industry. Tighter restrictions are almost certain next year. House's approval Aug. 9 of whopping $56 billion for Armed Forces during the year ending June 30, 1952 foreshadows accelerated military buildup. And it's to be followed by more money for foreign military aid, and possibly still more for our own Armed Forces this fall. It's good guess that $4-5 billion of this is for electronic equipment (for 9