Television digest with AM-FM reports (Jan-Dec 1951)

9 four 17 & five 21-in. sets Sept. 24. It claims these are "really new" — with entirely new chassis and 26 & 28 tubes, respectively. Former 16, 17 & 19-in. models were equipped with 21 tubes. That the industry at large isn't too happy about price warfare, that nobody can make much money on merchandise cut so deeply, that some companies may not be able to stand the gaff — and, above all, that production henceforth won't be on the hell-in-a-hack scale of 1950 and first-quarter 1951 — goes almost without saying. As for defense-induced shortages, read story below. SHORTAGES OF TVs STILL IN FUTURE: There will be at least 5,000,000 TV sets for sale the rest of this year — so only a buying spree of the magnitude of last year's postKorea gold rush could come anywhere near equalizing supply with demand by Christmas. With stiff curtailment of production for remainder of 1951, and even stiffer cutbacks next year, it's just barely possible a balance will be achieved by mid-1952 — but only if buying takes a heavy spurt and maintains it. Simple arithmetic of present inventories, plus anticipated fourth quarter production, shows why NPA materials cuts aren't likely to be felt in terms of set shortages for many months. It's almost certain that total inventories of TVs are at least 2,000,000 (see story above). Factory inventories (667,000 as of Aug. 24) plus distributor inventories (663,000 June 29) plus retailer inventories (about 1,000,000) total about 2,300,000. But to err on conservative side, in our computations we assumed Sept. 1 inventories are 1,850,000. Then we made these assumptions: Fourth quarter production to total 940,000 TVs (NPA's figure, based on 60% of first-half 1950 rate), September production to total 200,000 (at rate of 50,000 a week). Added together, these give estimated output of 1,140,000 sets for remainder of 1951. Totaling Inventories and anticipated production, we get a conservative figure of about 3,000,000 sets on the market during remaining 4 months of this year. That's almost exactly number of sets sold during last 4 months of 1950 — TV's lushest period — based on NBC "census" figures. But, being more realistic: If sales should average a healthy 140,000 a week, as they did for all of 1950, supply would catch up with demand in about 20 weeks, or in middle of February (assuming average weekly production of 50,000 sets in 1952). If sales average 100,000 sets a week, inventories won't be cleared out for at least 40 weeks, or until about mid-1952. If sales continue to average only 50,000 a week or less, there'll be surplus of TV sets until well into 1953. Trade Personals: Frank Folsom, RCA pi-esident, flying to Europe Sept. 21, will visit France and Spain, may go to Israel . . . Leonard F. Cramer, executive v.p., DuMont Laboratories, resigned Aug. 30, will vacation for month before announcing plans . . . James M. Valentine, who recently resigned as ABC-TV engineering mgr., named asst, division head in charge of TV field engineering. Federal Telecommunications Laboratories Inc. (IT&T) headquartering in Buenos Aires . . . E. P. Vanderwicken, ex-York Corp., succeeds retiring George R. MacDonald as Motorola v.p. -treasurer . . . Ralph H. Snyder named sales mgr.. Sentinel distributors, Chicago, succeeding William H. Nelson, I'esigned to rejoin Appliance Distributors Inc. (Admiral) . . . M. J. Yahr promoted to mgr. of RCA sound products sales . . . George Oliver resigns as adv.-sales promotion director, Packard-Bell . . . Melvin Pollack resigns as sales mgr.. Philharmonic Radio, will open Brighton Sporting Goods Store, 608 Brighton Beach Ave., Brooklyn . . . Louis M. Robb named GE tube dept, representative in San Francisco, Robert R. W. Lacy named commercial engineer for western sales region, Los Angeles . . . Joseph B. Elliott, RCA Victor v.p., reappointed chairman of RTMA sports broadcasting committee; he’s onetime Georgia Tech grid star . . . Frank M. Mansfield, Sylvania, reappointed chairman of RTMA statistics committee . . . Don Foster, CBS engineer, named asst, to Richard Mahler, dii’ector of licensing & contracts for CBS Labs Div. . . . Paul Wexler, national sales mgr., Columbia Records Inc., named v.p. Draft of proposed trade practice rules for TV-radio industry (Vol. 7:25,34) was mailed Aug. 30 by Federal Trade Commission to some 12,000 manufacturers and merchandisers. It’s designed to serve as “basis for discussion” at second industry-FTC conference Sept. 26 in National Archives Bldg., Washington. Following conference, new draft will be issued. Then public hearing must be held before rules are finalized. Copies of proposed rules are available from FTC, Washington. Move to boost excise taxes on TV-radio appeared dead as dodo at week’s end as Senate Finance Committee followed lead of House in rejecting Administration request to hike levy from 15% to 25% (Vol. 7:6 et seq). Committee also approved section of House-passed tax bill which would exempt from excise taxes “navigation, detection and communication receivers” sold to Govt.