Television digest with AM-FM reports (Jan-Dec 1951)

Nobilizalion Report September 15, 1951 SHORTAGES ARE REAL, HERE FOR LONG RUN: It's a moot question when there will be real shortage of TV-radio receivers — but there's no doubt about shortages of materials that go into them. And into other appliances. The shortages are going to hit hard, and soon — and grow worse through 1952. With TV trade log.lam broken, set manufacturers thinking in terms of higher output are going to bump against the metals ceiling. For it will be availability of metals — copper wire, steel , aluminum — rather than any shortages of components, that will limit most set makers' production in fourth quarter. But components will be big stumbling-block in first quarter 1952 — with tubes , transformers and coils due to be hardest-to-get items. Component production has been pretty good in third quarter ; most set makers stocked up on them. But — allotments of copper, steel and aluminum to parts makers were cut to the quick for fourth quarter - and this should show up in form of parts shortages early in 1952. Sharp drop in civilian tube production is inevitable. There's no pat solution to the nickel crisis (Vol. 7:36), and receiving tube industry will be living from hand to mouth — depending on NPA spot assistance even for some military orders — for many, many months to come. 4: * !l« * Shortage of hook-up wire will plague manufacturers during fourth quarter, may even be limiting factor in set production. NPA gave set makers CMF tickets for fourth-quarter copper at 54% of rate they used it in first-half 1950. This would be enough to make 850,000 sets or more — if they could get the copper. Trouble is, nobody expects the copper to be available. Strike took huge nick out of U.S. output, imports have fallen off, scrap copper industry is virtually shut down. With copper production considerably lower than govt, planners anticipated when they worked out the allotments, there's serious doubt whether set makers will be able to get anywhere near the full 54%. Threatened new cutbacks in steel (chassis, brackets, etc.) before end of fourth quarter also have set makers worried. TV-radio manufacturers have been allotted steel at 60% of their first-half 1950 rate for fourth quarter (consumer durables as a whole got average of 58%). Any new cuts would be on top of this. Aluminum is rationed to set makers at 48% of first-half 1950 rate. Most will have to use precious steel for items formerly made of aluminum. Inventories of materials left over from third quarter could mitigate situation to some extent — for all manufacturers obviously haven't been using all the materials earmarked for them this quarter (see p. 9). ^ ^ ^ That'S the picture facing set manufacturers last 3 months of this year. How many sets can they make? NPA is sticking to its estimate of 940,000 TVs (Vol. 7:32), but we've heard some educated guesses as low as 700,000 from govt, people. "Ridiculous" is comment of one NPA official on Drew Pearson's Sept. 9 broadcast prediction that strategic materials may soon be so tight that "all manufacture of TV sets may have to be stopped." Others at NPA pointed to the repeated statements by mobilization boss Charles E. Wilson and DPA-NPA chief Manly Fleischmann that the Govt, is determined to maintain healthy production of civilian goods. Conservation measures, developed by industry at accelerated pace over last year, will become necessities in months ahead. Many of them are now being incorporated into current production. New Zenith sets use Rauland electrostatic-focus CR tube, said to save 2 lb. of copper per set as well as cobalt, nickel and aluminum. DuMont's self-f OGUsing picture tube (Vol. 7:20-21,33-34) is now being shipped to set manufacturers; it eliminates need for focus magnet, coil and focus control. "Standardization & simplification" are in discussion stage at policy-making 7