Television digest with electronics reports (Jan-Dec 1952)

with Electronics Reports WYATT BUHDING V WASHINGTON 5, D. C. • TELEPHONE STERLING 1755 Trade Bepori August 30, 1952 TV OUTPUT ZOOMS, INVENTORIES SHRINK: Manufacturers' confidence in current TV market got statistical backing this week, with RTMA report showing output for week ending Aug. 22 had jumped to 138,705 units (15,337 private label) from 119,049 week before. It was highest production total since first week in April 1951. Factory inventories plunged to 267,823 as of Aug. 22 from 309,584, lowest since last April. "Sets really are moving," was happy refrain from the makers. Total output for quarter's 8 weeks thus far reported: 617 , 239. For the 34 weeks of year to date: 2,939,144. Radio production went up to 165,912 (61,396 private label) as of Aug. 22 from 153,035 week earlier; factory inventories were 335,160, down from 344,359. Week's radios were 68,373 home, 32,170 portable, 35,218 clock, 30,151 auto. Economists are seeing bright things ahead for all consumer durables. Federal Reserve Board reporting retail installment paper for appliances jumped 32% in June from May level. A.W. Zelomek, economist of International Statistical Bureau Inc., believes sales outlook for TVs, along with other appliances and autos, is favorable for rest of year and for early 1953, citing these factors: "Disposable income will average moderately higher. The 1953 models of practically all appliances will represent more new designs than at any time in years... Prices will still be reasonable, even though some moderate advances may be expected in view of the higher steel cost and rising labor costs. Radio and TV will be aided by one of the most interesting and intensive national political campaigns in years. Easy time payments will be emphasized, since Regulation W will not be in existence." LAG IN STEEL MAY FORCE SHORTAGES: Again the spectre of shortages — just when TV demand is well up, production back to early 1951 levels, inventories dwindling, and the trade outlook most encouraging. This time NPA officials say burst of speed in fourth-quarter TV production (advance estimate: 1,500,000 units) now cannot be expected to materialize because of reduced allotments due to recent steel strike. While third quarter will doubtless see output of predicted 1,000,000 (8-week score: 617,239), they retract predictions of big spurt in fourth quarter — that is, unless TV demand is so great that output is upped at the expense of radios. Manufacturers and assemblers may be pinched directly for steel in the fourth quarter — but it's the parts suppliers who will give most trouble. Sharpest danger signal comes from transformer makers, dependent on electrical silicon steel. GE has already laid off 3650 workers at Pittsfield (Mass.) transformer plant (Vol. 8:32). Others say they can't fill orders on schedules. Their pipelines are dry, and they see September as a "very rough month." Though silicon steel should start flowing again in October, enabling them to fill most orders, they say customers won't get as much as they ask. Some speaker manufacturers have already reported they expect very soon to run out of steel for brackets and baskets (Vol. 8:34). Others minimize steel shortage talk, say they expect to be able to hold to relatively normal schedules. * * * * Component makers in fourth quarter will get 70% of steel they used in traditionally slow third quarter. First quarter 1953, they're slated to get 10% less. Components may be biggest bottleneck, but set makers are beginning to worry about own steel allotments for chassis, brackets, etc. Those on base-period basis will receive in fourth quarter only 45% of amount they used in average quarter of 7