Television digest with electronics reports (Jan-Dec 1953)

A— . w ith Electronics Reports WASHINGTON 5. 0. C * TELEPHONE STERLING 3-1755 Trade Report September 19, 1953 ] FALL TV MARKET ISN'T ALL MILK & HONEY: Color, inventories, uncertainties about uhf — all these factors, plus some which aren't as readily apparent — combine to put industry in a mood of cautious optimism as it surveys fall & winter outlook. TV set makers hope business will be good, and most think it will be good — but they also have their fingers crossed against possibility of disappointment. In talking to manufacturers this week at RETMA industry conference in N.Y. , we found the element of restraint was most evident. As for predictions, there was no uniformity in their evaluations of the fall market, and all seemed guarded in their observations. (For other RETMA news, see Topics & Trends, p. 14.) Though new markets are opening up at fast clip, trade doesn't seem much excited. As one big manufacturer put it, "It takes a helluva lot of little towns going on the air to make up for those big drops in places like New York and Philadelphia. " Color worries some industry leaders more than they'll admit. A high Zenith official told us he fears Christmas business will suffer as new color standards move closer to acceptance, with much attendant publicity, and as consumers begin to ponder sinking money into black-&-white when color is promised in few years. Wait-f or-color philosophy has already cut deeply into big-screen sales. The 24 & 27-in. sets aren't moving anywhere near as well as anticipated, we were told by several manufacturers, who agreed that the thoughts of color were at least partly responsible for decisions of some consumers not to buy at this time. You could get optimism on color, too. DuMont's Dan Halpin sides with those who theorize that a color set displayed on showroom floor beside black-&-white will stimulate sales of latter. And James M. Toney, RCA Victor's distribution director, told dealers in Washington, at the first of series of NARDA regional meetings, that color will be "the biggest bonanza ever when it is mass produced." * * * * Immediate spectres of overproduction and bloated inventories are giving rise to some apprehension. Factory inventories have been dropping in last few weeks, now standing at slightly under 600,000 — but total in all pipelines is about 2,000,000. All levels of industry are keeping much closer tab on inventories than ever before. You could get almost any shading of opinion on production this year. One major manufacturer expressed belief industry shouldn't try to exceed 6,500,000 TVs. Beyond that figure, he foresaw risk of overproduction and danger of recurrence of dumping evils of early 1951. Another TV maker disagreed, saying industry is too smart today to overproduce — "we've learned a lot since the early days and we know you just can't jam sets down the throats of distributors and dealers anymore." Prices for balance of year should remain firm — certainly no lower, perhaps no higher. All majors except Motorola have already raised prices during last few months (Vol. 9:36). This week GE raised prices $10 on 11 of its 24 vhf-only sets and on 3 with built-in uhf. GE said boosts were necessary because of increased material costs, made no mention of longer dealer discounts. * * * * Uhf could be the key to success or failure of fall market, some believe. It's common knowledge that uhf sales in many areas have been below expectations this year. Having just concluded a cross-country tour of key markets, Halpin blames the failure of many stations to meet announced on-air dates — but biggest headache is unfamiliarity of dealers & servicemen with technical uhf problems of installation, servicing, etc. Stations have more recently been more cautious about on-air promises, and technical problems are generally being overcome, says Halpin. That business is picking up in such saturated markets as Washington. Chicago and Philadelphia was evident in scattered retail trade reports this week. Seasonal 12