Television digest with electronics reports (Jan-Dec 1953)

9 Softness of TV market might well be part of national economic trend, judging from results of survey of 155 large manufacturing companies by National Industrial Conference Board showing more consumer buying resistance today than in many years. * * * * Any big cutback in TV production is yet to be reflected in RETMA statistics. TV production totaled 161,537 week ended Nov. 6, compared to 158,052 preceding week and 173,114 week ended Oct. 30. It was year’s 44th week and brought year’s output to date to about 6,570,000. Output for all 1952 was 6,096,279. Radio production advanced to 285,340, increase from 261,614 week ended Oct. 30 and 273,882 in week before. It brought year’s production to date to about 11,600,000. TVs sold at retail in first 9 months totaled 4,500,560, well up from the 3,444,674 in same period year ago, according to RETMA report released this week. For Sept, alone, retail TV sales were 753,953, down from 875,290 in Sept, year ago. Radio sales, exclusive of auto radios, totaled 4,526,186 in first 9 months, compared to 4,296,982 last year. Sept, sales were 892,761 vs. 650,898 same month of 1952. ONE MANUFACTURER’S viewpoints on color TV seem particularly pertinent to the current discussion about its trade impact, and well worth repeating because he’s unusually articulate and so neatly points up what many in the trade are thinking. We asked Hoffman Radio’s youthful H. Leslie Hoffman, as we sat together watching the transcontinental color demonstration in Los Angeles Nov. 3 (Col. 9:45), to set down his frank reactions later. Here’s essence of what he wrote us: He and his staff had also seen Carmen Oct. 31 on their own experimental set, and were deeply impressed by both demonstrations. “[These] indicate that the color art has reached a stage of perfection where the programming and the receivers are marketable . . . The most significant phase of the NTSC System is the fact, as was clearly demonstrated, that today’s receiver gives an excellent picture in blaek-&-white when the telecast is in color, and conversely the color receiver gave a good black-&-white picture.” But it’s silly “to write the obituary of black-&-white prematurely [and] before we get too disturbed we should have a pretty good look at what has happened in our own radio industry.” TV did not kill off radio; from 1946-53, the industry built and sold 110,000,000 radio sets and each year since the war has built more sets than before the war. TV’s main effect on radio was to “practically eliminate console sales” and color’s effect on black-&-white will be to “force more sales into lower priced brackets.” Just as black-&-white TV moved into the living room and radio into the bedroom, so will color sets more into the living room and the black-&-white into the dens and bedrooms,” said Hoffman. “We are about to hear the whistle blown on the start of a great new industry, but do not make the mistake of assuming that it will eliminate its 2 ancestors — radio and black-&-white TV. We will have 3 services available for the public, and we should be able to make and sell all 3 services in the proper perspectives. In order to do this, however, we have a major education job for the people within the industry and the public. “I think the first phase in this education job is to remove the fear of obsolescence of their present sets by telling the compatible story in a non-technical way. The next phase is to explain the timing problem that exists, both from a program and receiving set viewpoint. “It would appear, assuming FCC approval is received before Jan. 1, 1954, that it would take RCA, by their own statement, 6 months to get equipment to their stations to even handle a network color show. [Editor’s Note: Networking equipment is expected to reach about 25 stations in 14 cities by Jan. 1, well ahead of availability of receiv ers for general public.] This would certainly mean they would not start out with color shows in the summertime, when everyone is on vaction. So it would probably mean that before any color shows are actually scheduled on a regular basis, it would be the fall of 1954. “It would appear that the general pattern will be for the vai-ious companies to introduce color receivers in their 1955 showings in June or July for delivery in July, Aug. or Sept. It appears that there is little likelihood of any quantity production of any other tube than the RCA 15-in. 3-gun in 1954. However, I think that 1955 will see other types of tubes available in a larger picture size.” Estimates of 50-100,000 color tubes available in 1954 are regarded as low by Hoffman, who thinks there may be twice that many. But in sets costing $800 to $1000 they’re merely “a luxury item.” He thinks the 15-in. tube’s 12-in. picture “is not objectionable” and “a salable unit” but that “only the more venturesome of the buyers will want to own one.” He continued: “We should start educating the public that the service problems and the maintenance of a color set will be more expensive than black-&-white. Color will take twice as many receiving tubes and, at present, there are approximately twice as many controls to adjust and tune. “There is no question but what larger screens, lower cost, less complex circuits will be produced — but these miracles won’t happen overnight, and in the meantime the customer should continue to buy black-&-white sets, get the utmost enjoyment out of them, and know that when and if he gets ready to buy color the trade-in will obviously be better. This pattern has held for white goods and automobiles, and I see no reason why it should not hold for TV.” The educational program, in Hoffman’s opinion, should be undertaken by someone outside the industry. At RETMA’s Chicago convention next week (Nov. 17-19), he will recommend Better Business Bureau do the job “because their contact is directly with the public and they have no particular ax to grind for any particular industry or group.” It’s not an easy job, he continued. “I think right now we have the public feeling that color is just around the corner and that there is some indefinite and vague reason why they cannot have it. We have to get across to them that the telecast for color today is in the same category as the exhibition by General Motors of their Sabre-Jet and the other special show models that point to the future. Somehow, the automotive industry has gotten the idea across without having it act as a sales deterrent to present cars. “I personally believe that the timing of the publicity