Television digest with electronic reports (Jan-Dec 1953)

11 OPINIONS VARY on the impact of color on the TV trade — but everyone is agreed the few sets available next year will be expensive and most think it will be several years before color becomes an important factor in public demand and dollar volume. We asked the leading manufacturers for year-end comments on the trade generally, which we were preparing to publish this week and next. When the FCC color decision broke, we dec'ded simply to excerpt their observations on color, about which nearly all had something to say. Here’s essence of what they said, plus some statements released this week: Ross Siragusa, Admiral Corp. : “My guess is that the industry will turn out more nearly 200,000 than the outside 150,000 others have predicted. A.dmiral will make its share; in fact, we’ve gotten a good start already, and have made about 100 sets. I’m not one of those who is worried about the impact on black-&-white sales. If there has been any damage, it has already been done— yet our mai’kets are still doing nicely.” Admiral’s exec, v.p. John Huarisa added Dec. 18 that Admiral plans to introduce its pilot sets (15-in. tube, 12-in. picture) to distributors at sales convention in Chicago’s Conrad Hilton, Dec. 30. Price will be announced then, is expected to be “over $1000,” he stated. By second quarter 1954, Huarisa promises a “sample for every dealer in cities that will be on the color cable.” He also predicted approximately 200,000 color sets in 1954 “barring shortages of picture tuhes and color components” and said Admiral’s production goal is more than 30,000 color sets next 12 months. David H. Cogan, CBS-Columbia : “The industry will be able to make over 100,000 color receivers within one year [of FCC approval date]. The important problems facing the industry are engineering, testing and efficient production techniques. Once color receivers get out into the field, servicemen will need extensive equipment and considerable re-training to service them properly. There will be a temporary dropoff in black-&-white sales when color appears on the dealer’s floor. However, once the novelty of color has worn off, monochrome sales will go back to their regular levels. In 1954 the industry will be able to sell some 5,000,000 receivers; 21-in. sets will account for 70% and 17-in. for 20%.” CBS pres. Frank Stanton revealed, during a Dec. 17 colorcast, that CBSHytron will start “mass production” of color tubes next March, CBS-Columbia of color sets by mid-1954. Leonard F. Cramer, Avco (Crosley) : “It will be at least 5 years before color broadcasting makes sufficient progress in programming to stimulate receiver sales in the volumes of black-&-white.” He predicted 5,500,000 black-&-white sales in 1954, with “a consumer move toward merchandise priced at the low end of the line.” Dr. Allen B. DuMont: “The FCC decision is ahead of the industry’s ability to deliver commercially practical color TV equipment and programs in any appreciable quantities for several years . . . We believe that the public will demand large-screen color TV [and we] shall go into production and introduce a large-screen color TV receiver in 1954. However, the public should recognize that neither DuMont nor the rest of the industry will be able to deliver any substantial number of color receivers of any sizes at prices which the general public can afford for several years. Nor will there be enough color programs broadcast to justify a large receiver investment until they’re available in quantity.” Benjamin Abrams, Emerson Radio: “It [the 1954 market] will not be a pink tea party. Instead, it will take all the sales and business ingenuity the industry can muster to come within 10% of 1953 sales. Beyond 1954, the prospects are much brighter.” In telegram to distributors Dec. 18, Abrams said color decision “marks a new era of prosperity for our industry never before equalled.” He added : “The immediate effect of this announcement must result in increased sales of table model black-&-white receivers [at] $150 & $250 for 17-&-21-in. sets. By contrast, color receivers will sell for $700-81000 . . . Color receivers will be available within a few weeks for demonstration purposes only. Mass production may not be reached for at least a year. Total production for industry may not exceed 50,000, which is equivalent to not more than one set per dealer for all of 1954, and the major part of this will be produced within the last months of the year.” Herbert Riegelman, GE TV-radio gen. mgr.; “In attempting to evaluate 1954 monochrome sales, it is necessary to gauge the effect of the introduction of color TV on saturated markets, at the same time realizing there will be opportunities in new markets where color will not have the same effect as in old markets.” He estimated close to 5,500,000 black-&-white sets will be sold in 1954 and “minimum sales” of 100,000 color sets. Hallicrafters spokesman: “The production of color sets hinges to a great extent, if not entirely, on the tube manufacturers’ ability to supply us with color picture tubes. The consensus among manufacturers is that only a token quantity of color sets will be manufactured next year — in the neighborhood of 150.000, with which figure we concur. We do not believe that 1954 blaek-&-white receiver manufacturing will exceed 4,000,000 to 4,500,000, with the emphasis on 17-in. and 21-in. tubes.” H. L. Hoffman, Hoffman Radio: “It certainly is a challenge to the industry to harness the interest in color in a constructive way and sell more black-&-white. I think it can be done because certainly the display of color sets in the store will start people talking about TV and will create traffic at the dealer level.” Paul V. Galvin, Motorola: “The public’s initial curiosity about color TV will be answered. But the purchase of a color receiver within the limits of the family budget will be years away.” His son, exec. v.p. Robert W. Galvin, added: “Color will principally influence the mix of sets. Lower list price merchandise will represent a considerably higher percentage of the TV volume. Sales of black-&r white should approximate 3,000,000; of color receivers, over 100,000.” Philco Corp.: Official company attitude was that the color decision must be studied before any formal comment would be made, but a spokesman told Wall Street Journal: “It will take us 9 months to tool up and then we’ll only be producing a trickle for several months.” Exec. v.p. James H. Carmine told Retailing Daily a few days earlier that “8 to 9 months will be required for broadcasting changeovers even after the FCC finally approves color standards” and added his opinion that the effect of color talk on current sales has been greatly exaggerated. Frank Folsom, RCA: “Color TV sets will begin to come off the production lines in small quantities in approximately 6 months from today [and] it will probably be at least an additional year until mass production is reached. First color sets manufactured by RCA will have a 14-in. picture size and will be priced between $800 & $1000. Considering the relative values of the dollar, this compares favorably with the price of the first 12-in. sets introduced in 1939. When mass production of receivers and tri-color tubes gets under way, the prices will come down as they did with black-&-white receivers [but] it will take several years to reach this goal.” H. G. Baker, RCA Victor home instruments v.p.: “There is little doubt that 1954 will be a black-&-white year ... It has been estimated the industry during 1954